About this episode
Professor Jiang predicted Trump would win the election, America would go to war with Iran, and that the United States would lose that war. Now he reveals why he believes this conflict could reshape the entire world order! Professor Jiang is a geopolitical analyst, writer, and host of the YouTube channel 'Predictive History', who uses history, geography, economics, and game theory to explain where global conflicts may be heading next. Through his Substack, he provides geopolitical analysis of current events and helps readers understand the deeper forces shaping war, power, and the future of the American empire. He explains: ◼️Why he believes America had no choice but to go to war with Iran ◼️Why Israel’s real goal may be much bigger than defeating Iran ◼️How the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global energy and food crisis ◼️Why China, Russia, Iran, Israel, and the US are locked into competing worldviews ◼️Why the US dollar, oil, and global trade routes are at the center of the Iran War ◼️Why he believes World War 3 may have already begun ◼️What happens if Russia enters the war on Iran’s side ◼️Why the next phase of war may be fought through energy, shipping, and food Follow Professor Jiang: Youtube - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/FYWV4L8 Instagram - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/Cm0HlGI X - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/5jRKZdE Substack (geo-political analysis) - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/46bgm4o Sponsors: Pipedrive - https://pipedrive.com/CEO Shopify - https://shopify.com/bartlett
Episode summary
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You exploded online after three 2024 calls came true, though some wish they had not; what were they?
I said Trump would win in November, launch a war with Iran, and that the United States would ultimately lose, reshaping the map.
How did you anticipate a U.S. move on Iran?
Sanctions on Russia shattered the dollar’s aura of neutrality, pushing Russia, China, and Iran to trade outside U.S. control, so Washington struck Iran to defend the dollar order.
So the U.S. hit Iran to secure the currency regime and Middle East leverage.
Yes, it also squeezes China’s energy lifeline and leaves Europe and East Asia scrambling, which pushes them toward U.S. supplies while Trump seeks dominance across the Western Hemisphere.
Why predict the U.S. will still lose?
America lacks the will and industry for a grinding fight and misread Iran’s culture, betting on a quick decapitation strike that never fits a mountainous nation.
Iraq’s flat terrain enabled shock and awe; Iran is a fortress that favors attrition, dispersed missiles, and long-range strikes on bases and energy infrastructure.
Iran weaponized insurance by making the Strait of Hormuz too risky, while the Gulf’s food and desalination dependence increases pressure on Washington’s partners.
Did nobody game out Iran’s Hormuz leverage?
The public roadmap exists: the National Defense Strategy sets four pillars—seal the Western Hemisphere, make allies carry more of the fights, hem in China through maritime chokepoints, and supercharge the defense base.
You are saying Detroit might pivot from cars to munitions?
The Pentagon signaled as much, and contractors prefer war margins to consumer markets, which aligns with a long war footing.
Define losing if the broader strategy is working.
Losing means U.S. ground troops deploy, Iran endures, domestic turmoil spikes, and Washington pulls back from the region.
After failed decapitation, the U.S. moves to blockade and a three-prong squeeze: cut Iran’s oil cash at Kharg and Hormuz, stoke Baluch and Kurdish insurgencies from forward bases, and starve Tehran of water, power, and food.
Who actually holds power inside Iran?
It is a theocracy alongside a state bureaucracy; the IRGC frames this as a sacred war with proxies, while political managers want a deal, and the mosaic strategy decentralizes 31 commands to survive U.S. targeting.
How likely is a wider war?
Very high; think chess—U.S. democracy’s weak point is polarization, its tools are aerospace tech, the dollar, and narrative power, with allies as expendable pieces.
Russia’s Third Rome outlook uses depth, faith, and artillery; Israel pursues Greater Israel with intelligence reach and political backers; Iran leans on proxies, drones, and terrain.
Washington is locking down chokepoints like Malacca, Hormuz, Panama, Gibraltar, and even Greenland while degrading refineries, which collides with Russia’s armed shadow fleet and triggers creeping maritime seizures and new basing deals.
Do you expect Moscow to step in for Tehran?
Yes; Russia can resupply via the Caspian, bring China through rail and financing, and extend a nuclear umbrella, or else its southern flank and Eurasian corridors are exposed.
Does any of this hinge on Trump’s term limit?
The strategy outlives presidents, so even if leadership changes, the machinery sustains a drawn-out conflict.
Unpack your new predictions, starting with the headline.
Trump will seek a third term through a vice-presidential swap or emergency powers, driven by his need to remain center stage.
The Constitution appears to block a third election.
He will test legal gray zones and bank on the Court; it is divisive, but he will try.
Next call?
A U.S.–China bargain: Beijing keeps buying Treasuries and gains market and energy access while triangulating between Washington and Moscow.
And the draft tied to a forever war?
Iran becomes the pretext for sustained deployments, with a lottery draft for young men as troop needs grow.
What does an AI surveillance state mean on the ground?
Digital IDs and programmable money let governments log behavior and steer choices, as China’s integrated systems already show.
You also forecast Greater Israel and a fight for Odessa.
If the U.S. exits, Israel inherits regional basing and pushes biblical borders, and in Ukraine Russia takes Odessa to lock the Black Sea and command grain flows to vulnerable regions.
Shifting to East Asia, I see three flashpoints: Taiwan, the Strait of Malacca, and North Korea. Taiwan is pivotal because Beijing claims it, and Tokyo now treats its fate as central to Japan’s survival and access to resources.
Would Japan actually fight China?
It would have to, because a China–Taiwan union would let Beijing squeeze Japan’s sea lanes and threaten its supply lifelines.
Why could Japan not route through the Philippines and Southeast Asia?
Control of Taiwan tightens China’s grip on chokepoints and would leave Japan feeling boxed out and vulnerable.
So you expect conflict there?
That’s one hotspot; another is the Strait of Malacca, where the United States wants leverage and China sees an economic artery, and the third is North Korea, which I think is the most imminent.
If you’re Pyongyang and the world is distracted, you can threaten Seoul, which sits within minutes of mass artillery, and use that risk to extort concessions instead of waging a full war.
But South Korea and the United States would strike back, right?
North Korea counts on ruthless coercion and the fact that American systems like THAAD have been redeployed elsewhere; a credible threat alone can shake money loose.
What does all this mean for everyday people?
We’ll need neighbors who turn fear into cooperation, who organize when power or water goes out, and who help rebuild from the ground up.
Which empire do you think is actually collapsing?
The American empire is fading, and there’s no single successor; it looks more like a Bronze Age unraveling where overlapping shocks trigger mass migrations that strain every border.
Could AI and robotics make things abundant?
Machines don’t change the fact that crops need fertilizer, and without it yields fall, hunger rises, and people move.
You still sound hopeful—why?
Because crisis wakes up human creativity; comfort made us dull, but danger pulls communities together and sparks ingenuity.
Before we wrap, I invite listeners into my private community, then ask you this: what big idea did we miss?
Reality itself; take Plato’s cave, where people mistake shadows for truth, build culture around the illusion, and attack anyone who questions it, then map that onto today’s world.
The chains are hard power, the game masters are the financial architecture that sets the rules of money, the economy is the stage, global bodies provide a veneer of neutrality, and media and schools teach us to love the shadows.
Are you saying I’m part of that media layer?
Yes, and even if you feel independent, whoever controls the flow of money and attention shapes the fire behind you.
Once the narrative is internalized as values, habits, and laws, the structure looks solid but it’s fragile; when people stop believing, authorities lean on censorship and enforcement to keep it standing.
Independent media are feeling that pressure, though I see it as people protecting their incentives.
No one has to be a villain for a system to defend itself; rising doubt gives a chance to build a new order, which is why AI and a bankers-versus-tech power struggle matter now.
How long do empires last?
Roughly two centuries, with declines driven by debt, corruption, and inequality; you can’t halt the slide, and the churn feeds future innovation.
Could the United States fall in the next decade, and what should someone my age do?
It could happen within five to ten years. Don’t try to game the collapse; adopt a Hermetic mindset that treats reality as consciousness, live with integrity, create, and improve the lives around you.
I’ve heard physicists echo that we may be parts of a shared mind, which boosts empathy.
Explore the Kabbalah’s Tree of Life and its cycle of rupture and repair; some in the Middle East even act as if they can hasten redemption through conflict, but let’s stop there.
Our closing tradition is a mystery question: who will you miss most, and why?
My wife, who met me when I’d hit bottom and loved me without conditions, started a family with me, pushed me to stay true, and unlocked the courage that led me to teach and then create videos that unexpectedly took off.
Did you see this level of online success coming?
I sensed there’d be people who resonated, and love widened my imagination enough to take risks, make bold forecasts, and follow the thread the universe handed me, though the scale surprised me.
Your channel exploded in a year; has it changed you?
No; my purpose is to learn, share, and be brave for my family, and if the channel vanished tomorrow I’d keep creating because my source is at home, not in metrics.
Plenty asked for you to be here, and while you’re polarizing I welcome many views in pursuit of truth; your clarity helps people act on complex ideas.
Anyone can seek truth with enough desire and will; thank you.
Thank you for listening; see you next time.