FantasyPros - Projecting the First Round | The Top 12 Fantasy Football Players in 2026 (Ep. 1939)

It’s me, Joe P., and we’re doing a fun early exercise we’ll probably revisit a thousand times before Labor Day. With Jake Seely from The Athletic and Andrew Erickson from FantasyPros, we’re sketching a way-too-early 2026 first round. I already tweaked my board after our 2025 post‑mortem because that’s the point of these talks—kick ideas around, learn, and refine.

Totally. My July drafts never look like my late‑August drafts. We learn more, guys get hurt, coaches change, and ADP shifts. Doing this now makes you faster on the pivots later.

Quick temperature check on Malik Nabers, who’s coming off injury. After that hilarious ad spot, I almost bumped him. Also, we saw Stefon Diggs come back fast off his ACL—so Andrew, are we talking first‑round vibes by August if Nabers looks right?

I’m buying the dip. One strong game and he’s right back valued like a top‑five wideout. I liked the second‑year trajectory before we even knew the QB, and I think Jackson Dart can drive fantasy production. If that passing tree condenses, 170 targets isn’t crazy.

All early, all speculative—coaches and coordinators still to come—but let’s play it out. Jake, walk us through your one through four and why.

I start with Bijan Robinson. He feels like the cleanest elite RB profile with more ceiling to unlock, even with OC and QB questions. Then I go Puka Nacua, Jackson Smith‑Njigba, and Ja’Marr Chase. Puka’s target share is quarterback‑proof, but Stafford’s health is a watch. JSN’s volume is real, though OC changes and the WR2 slot matter. Chase is amazing, but outside that big 2024 spike he’s lived around 16 points per game. I’ve got those three wideouts in one tier, with a slight nod to Puka and JSN on role.

Love that breakdown. Andrew, give us your one through four.

I’m also Bijan at one. If Tyler Allgeier walks, Bijan’s snap share could go nuclear under Zach Robinson. I’m leaning RBs up top because they just delivered. Chase is my WR1 because the Burrow‑Chase combo at full strength is the highest ceiling in the room. At four I go James Cook—the Bills’ offense is Josh Allen and Cook, and he’s squarely in his prime with room for more third‑down work.

I’m heavier on wideout: JSN, then Ja’Marr Chase, then Bijan, then Puka. Seattle’s setup feels stable and Darnold’s settled in. I want to see Atlanta’s HC before pushing Bijan to one. I love Puka, but age and health for Stafford keep me from top‑three today.

Quick Chase pushback. Are we expecting the anomaly year or the 16‑ish per game version he’s been with Burrow healthy?

I’m expecting the Bengals to finally fix the line, which fuels more spike weeks. I trust the Burrow‑Chase connection more than I trust Stafford’s timeline and Puka’s variables, even though Puka is the entire Rams offense when they’re humming.

And Chase’s red‑zone role has been stronger. Puka sees a lot until the goal line, then Davante Adams hogs end‑zone looks. If Burrow rips 45 touchdowns, Chase can lead the position on scores alone.

Alright, picks five through eight. Jake?

Gibbs, McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Achane. If David Montgomery is out and a creative OC lands in Detroit, Gibbs could be the 1.01. McCaffrey is risky but even a 20 percent haircut still projects elite per game. Taylor is a QB and scheme watch, but we’ve seen the RB1 form. Achane lived at 18 points per game in a choppy year, which says a lot.

I can’t get there with CMC in the top five. Age 30, that touch load, and the chance the missed games land in the fantasy playoffs—too much fragility for my first half of round one.

He’s 12 for me. Heavy‑touch backs almost never come back top five the next year. Without George Kittle, McCaffrey consistently missed his rushing props and didn’t look as explosive between the tackles. The receiving keeps him afloat, but the rushing dip is real.

You can spin the workload data both ways, which is why reasonable people land apart. I bake the risk in, not out.

My five through eight are JSN, Puka, Jonathan Taylor, and CeeDee Lamb. JSN is my WR2 but I’m bracing for OC turnover. Puka depends on Stafford’s path. I trust Shane Steichen to get Taylor rolling with even an average QB. Lamb’s a placeholder who could slide if Dallas adds another alpha; Dak’s year‑to‑year swings matter.

My five through eight: I’m planting a flag on Amon‑Ra St. Brown. The floor is money, the ceiling hits, and he’s the heartbeat of that offense. Then Gibbs, Lamb, and Drake London. London’s spot moves with Atlanta’s coach and QB health, but the breakout signs were there.

I’m not round‑one on London right now. Too many quarterback unknowns and Penix’s ACL history make me pause, even though the early‑season connection was promising.

I’ve got Amon‑Ra as WR5 too; it’s just where the positional tiers fall. James Cook is my nine—credit where due, Joe. Then I’m in that same zone with Rashee Rice if Mahomes is ready. After the top tier of wideouts, 20 points per game profiles matter.

I can’t first‑round Rice with the Mahomes recovery window unclear and Rice’s own off‑field question marks.

Fair. If Mahomes isn’t ready by week one—or even until week five—Rice is out. I close round one with Hampton. If he’s a true bell cow behind a healthy line and with a more modern offense, he can live in the 18‑plus per game range right away.

I’m with you on Hampton’s arc and the Chargers’ likely identity shift. The best part is you won’t need to spend a top‑ten pick to get that upside.

I like framing it as who we’ll be drafting top of 2027. That lens finds league winners, and Hampton fits. The Walter Payton comp is wild, but the talent and role could be special.

Andrew, close your board. Nine through twelve?

Nine Amon‑Ra, ten Achane, eleven Saquon, twelve CMC. Achane’s three‑down skill pops if he’s fed. Barkley is a bounce‑back bet if the Eagles fix the line and retool the weapons. If the tush push goes away, that could funnel more traditional goal‑line work to backs.

My nine through twelve: Justin Jefferson, Jonathan Taylor, James Cook, and CMC. Jefferson is too gifted to fade; the situation will improve or he’ll force it to. Taylor looked MVP‑level before things went sideways. I expect Buffalo to add a true WR1, which might trim Cook a bit but keeps him near the turn.

Jefferson just missed for me. I get the talent bet; I want a little more clarity first.

Even if they run it back, I don’t see it being this rough again. Jefferson’s profile says this season was the outlier, not the rule.

I get that, but the quarterback and play-caller questions keep me out on Jefferson until the situation changes, and that’s not a round-two target for me. London is similar with all the Falcons uncertainty, which is why I keep going back to Bijan as a stable bet regardless of who’s under center. If Pickens returns on a tag, he and Lamb sit just outside round one for me, and you can make a touchdown-upside case for Pickens over Lamb. At running back, I don’t see a clean path to push Ashton Jeanty into the first right now, so I’ll let Erickson lay out the case.

Jeanty checked every usage box as a rookie and still looked explosive, but the Raiders’ offense dragged him down. It was a good season on paper that felt disappointing because the draft cost was so high. If they shore up the line and get healthier, he can climb, but today I prefer Hampton because the Chargers already have quality up front that just needs to get back on the field. I’m tweaking ranks after this talk, but that’s where I land for now.

My big takeaway from this exercise is I want the turn. I’d love starts like Jeanty with Malik Nabers, or James Cook with Jonathan Taylor, and I’ll happily take Jefferson if he slips into the second. Folks reaching on a premium tight end will push more talent to those early second picks, with Hampton as a prime target. Last one before we go: will any rookies crack the first round in 2026 redraft? I’m a firm no with this class.

Same. Last year showed it was the team context that sank Jeanty, not the fact he was a rookie, but I still wouldn’t put a rookie in round one next year.

I’ll leave the door open. Jeremiah Love has that kind of talent, and if he lands in a prime spot like the Chiefs or Cowboys, he could make the leap. Drop him in a muddier situation and it’s a no, though I don’t think New Orleans would be the worst landing either.

I’m sure absolutely nothing we said will change between now and September. We’ll just repost in August and see where you all stand.