THE HERD - Hour 3 - Eric Mangini stops by The Herd

Let’s get this rolling. The league’s changed. Kids arrive more polished, so by year two I expect answers. With Drake May about to make his postseason debut, is it fair to demand home wins now?

It’s not unrealistic. Year one is survival mode with volume, new defenses, and the marathon season. Year two, in the same system, talented guys jump, and Drake’s got a huge edge with Josh McDaniels’ range and Mike Vrabel’s presence.

On the other end, Josh Allen’s a superstar and the standard becomes January. If Buffalo stumbles in Jacksonville, how much heat is fair on Sean McDermott?

It depends how it happens. If Allen plays clean and the defense caves late, that’s different than him forcing throws against a takeaway-hungry defense. When you have an elite quarterback, you’re expected to chase titles every year, and this season he’s the lone superhero left in the conference.

Kyle Shanahan is great scripting, but the record when trailing at half is rough. Is he too tied to the plan?

That tracks. When your weekly script usually works, you keep betting on it. Ron Erhardt kept a ‘break glass’ list of familiar calls the whole offense knew to pivot fast when the plan stalled. That flexibility matters.

Bears-Packers is tricky. Ugly weather helps Chicago’s run game and line, yet Green Bay’s favored. If the Packers lose, what’s the Monday conversation?

Green Bay’s lived with sky-high expectations from Favre to Rodgers to Love. The organization amped it even more with bold moves and big talk. Still, they’ve owned this matchup, and I think they take it again.

If you’re John Harbaugh surveying openings, where’s the smart play?

The Raiders are quietly appealing. You can solve quarterback at the top of the draft, bridge with a veteran, spend from a massive cap stash, and you’ve got Tom Brady as a steadying voice. If you like this quarterback class, you can turn it quickly.

I liked what I saw from Aaron Rodgers late and Tomlin’s always dangerous as a dog. Do the Steelers have a real shot against a Houston team that kicks too many field goals?

Their edge is experience. Rodgers diagnosed a drop-eight look versus Baltimore and ripped the seam to Freiermuth on a pivotal third-and-long—classic post-snap processing. That veteran poise, plus Tomlin’s playoff chops, is their path more than any stat edge.

Report out of Cleveland: Harbaugh wants top-dollar pay, a rich staff pool, full roster control, and a hand-picked GM. Too much?

Pay the coach, sure, but I wouldn’t hand over the whole operation. Give him a strong voice, not total control, and align on a GM rather than rubber-stamping his guy. History says dual power can bite you.

Patriots’ defense hasn’t faced many elite quarterbacks. Justin Herbert is a big step up, and I’m backing the Chargers.

I get it. The Chargers’ defense, staff, and kicker are big pluses, and New England’s better than people think but still rebuilding.

Rematch talk in the college semis: Indiana-Oregon in Atlanta. Trend says the team that won first often drops the second, so expect a tight, last-possession type game.

Tomorrow’s headlines today. Rams at Panthers—what’s your call?

Rams roll behind Stafford. Ejiro Evero knows the McVay tree and can muddy reads, but Carolina won’t score enough to keep pace.

Packers-Bears in the cold—who advances?

Green Bay. I’m fading first postseason starters. With receivers healthier and rest on their side, Love gets it done.

Niners at Eagles—strength on strength.

Eagles in a grinder. Defense edges a banged-up San Francisco front; low total, trench game.

Chargers at Patriots—my worry is that Chargers line.

Chargers anyway. New England’s low pressure rate won’t punish protection, and Los Angeles is excellent in the red zone. Jesse Minter can tilt it schematically.

Texans-Steelers—does this thrill you?

Houston by margin. Tomlin’s recent playoff record is rough, and the Texans’ rush plus Nico Collins’ shot plays are a bad mix for Pittsburgh. Weather shouldn’t rattle C.J.

Bills-Jags makes me nervous because Josh can just take over. New England’s schedule was soft, and they’re still mid-rebuild. As for Tomlin, I don’t see a divorce. This feels like a one-score slog, he’s back, and we’ll see you Monday.