Frankloskop 009: Mladen Ivanić - Kaj bo z BiH po Dodiku in kako daleč je vojna

Dear listeners, welcome to the ninth episode of Frankloskop. I’m Peter Frankl, editor-in-chief of Finance, and today I’m hosting Mladen Ivanić—economist, veteran Bosnian politician, former member of the BiH Presidency, prime minister of Republika Srpska, and foreign minister. We’ll talk about Bosnia’s future and Slovenia–Bosnia ties; we’re speaking in Serbian, with subtitles provided. Mladen, thanks for joining us.

Thank you for the invitation, I’m glad to be here.

How do you see Bosnia and Herzegovina’s future—does the Dayton setup still make sense?

Dayton is the only workable framework; trying to replace it would trigger a push for a unitary state that alarms Croats and Serbs, and in turn would fuel Serb independence and Croat demands for a third entity.

And your personal view as a Serb leader who served in state institutions?

I don’t expect dramatic change; we’re not more complex than Switzerland or Belgium, but unlike them we still chase maximal goals and try to outsmart each other. Progress needs leaders who choose compromise over extremes.

So the system can work if people want it to—but are there rational politicians today?

We live in a time when the louder you are, the more votes you get, and that’s not just a Balkan story. The last truly steady leader I met was Angela Merkel—criticized now for migration and energy, but she gave Europe a sense of stability and steered it through crises like Brexit.

From Slovenia, Bosnia feels close. What’s your forecast, and how do you see Slovenia’s posture toward BiH?

Slovenia has been balanced and constructive, openly backing enlargement. For BiH I see two paths: with a few pragmatic compromises we could quickly improve our image and attract investment, or we keep drifting—no war, but stagnation and people leaving.

Why did the population shrink so much after the war?

When Europe opened, many educated, stable families left not because jobs didn’t exist, but because they saw no future at home.

Does Dodik’s removal mark the end of that confrontational era—and could it unlock a positive scenario?

I’ve always believed Serb interests are best defended through state institutions, and there are no innocents in BiH politics. Dodik’s abrasive style empowered anti‑Dayton unitary ideas in Sarajevo that internationals tolerated while punishing him; his fall is the end of an era, though he still holds party levers. Whether this helps depends on Sarajevo’s response and international actors; even the announced referendum lost meaning once he accepted electoral decisions and proposed an acting president.

Where does that leave Republika Srpska, especially in the economy?

Its international position is difficult—ties to Russia and Viktor Orbán play badly globally, while support from Belgrade is natural. The economy is weak with few new investments, and Slovenian capital has been a rare steady positive.

How does the Federation compare?

The Federation has slightly faster growth, lower debt, and more foreign investment, mainly due to politics; structurally RS is simpler and should be nimbler, but its image scares investors. The difference is real, though not night and day.

What about Russia’s influence—and those photos of Dodik with Putin?

Ukraine dominates Moscow’s attention; the Balkans are peripheral, so they use local allies for low‑cost influence without a deep strategy. Russia helped seal Dayton and, in my experience, hasn’t pushed RS secession; stability depends on sticking to Dayton’s principles.

Do you see BiH in the European Union?

It’s the only path. Big reforms happened when Brussels sent positive signals; enlargement fatigue froze momentum, and the Ukraine war reopened doors. I’d be happy if even one Western Balkans country—most likely Montenegro—joins by 2030, which would lift the whole region.

How strong is nationalism today, and why does it persist?

The war left deep wounds and a shared sense of victimhood, and our history is built on group identity, not the individual. National feelings will linger, so we need leaders rooted in their communities who are still ready to compromise.

You mentioned social distance inside BiH and even alcohol’s role in loosening tongues. Can you explain?

The active generation came of age during wartime, so extremism left marks; many students have never even visited the other entity, and after a few drinks the hidden views surface. Time, routine, and everyday cooperation are what cool things down.

Do people in RS support the BiH football team?

Less than before; most cheer for Serbia, which isn’t unusual by European standards.

Slovenia recently banned Dodik’s entry. Do you see tycoons from RS influencing Slovenian politics?

Slovenia’s overall approach has been even‑handed, and the motives for the ban aren’t clear to me. Wealthy RS businessmen moved capital to Slovenia and Croatia, which is normal; trying to steer another country’s politics with that money would be foolish and risky, and I keep my distance from such ties.

What about Ljubljana’s mayor, municipal contracts in RS, and Dodik urging Slovene Serbs to vote for Janša?

I don’t know the details of those contracts; Dodik has long felt close to Janša and likes to grandstand, but endorsements from Banja Luka don’t decide elections in Ljubljana, even if they add fuel to local rivalries.

Is BiH still safe for Slovenian investors, given cases like the Viadukt arbitration?

In general, post‑Dayton investments have had legal safety, though cases like energy concessions and the Viadukt saga exposed corruption and deals that hurt citizens; I believe authorities were complicit, and only the opposition keeps pressing for investigations.

And your own political future?

I started young and planned my exit; I don’t intend to return. It’s healthier to leave on your terms and let new generations lead, because staying too long breeds arrogance.

Whatever your next chapter holds, we wish you well. Thank you for the conversation.