Sharp or Square - Super Bowl LX Betting Trends with Evan Abrams

The Volume Podcast Network presents Sharper Square. I’m Chad Millman with my compadre Simon Hunter, and this is our first Thursday Super Bowl preview; next week we’ll lock final plays and all the named bets with another big guest.

News dump before we dive in: Joe Brady to the Bills, Todd Monken to the Browns, Drake May showed up on the injury report, and the Hall left Belichick waiting, which is insane.

Are you really that big a hater, Chad, or should Belichick have been in on the first ballot?

Of course he should. The guy rewired situational football and owns a mountain of rings—this gatekeeping voter routine is ridiculous.

Media beef plus the cheating stigma made it petty, and it shows; the process needs new voters.

Exactly—voters playing ‘guardian of the Hall’ is clownish; do the job with integrity, not ego.

On the Browns: feels like nobody wanted that job, Schwartz is out, and the hire looks like a downgrade.

It’s a data-obsessed process with no quarterback and a defense that was the only thing working; the Ravens probably smiled when Monken left their orbit.

Let’s move to bets and keep it friendly—subscribe on YouTube, Apple, Spotify—and hit Sharp Calls.

Pros leaned Seahawks and under even before the Drake May shoulder talk; money keeps nudging the total down, and most are holding positions and waiting for real info.

I grabbed Seattle at three and a half and again at four and a half as it drifted; feels like more movement comes next week once we know more about May.

We’ve got our longtime friend and research ace, Evan Abrams, with us; also, quick shout to fellow Indiana alums—this past week was pure, expectation-free joy.

Belichick waiting also jams next year’s coaching class, but the game’s here, so let’s focus.

Evan, which trends actually matter and which are noise?

Start with on‑field stuff—pace, efficiency, matchup tendencies, what coaches do pre‑ and post‑snap—then layer the historical angles; don’t let old ATS trivia lead the handicap.

Trends help people digest complex edges; I use them as supporting signals, not the whole case.

Make me feel good about Seattle—or tell me I should pivot to New England.

In big‑spread Super Bowls, dogs often cover but don’t always win, so Seattle by one to six points is a clean angle if you expect a tight win.

If you see a romp, take alt lines like minus six and a half to cut juice; landing on four or five is rare.

What about the conference title ATS angle?

Since the merger, teams that failed to cover in the conference title game are poor in the Super Bowl against the number; context matters, but it mildly tilts toward Seattle.

Last week’s swing was injury‑driven and the Pats feel a touch inflated—similar to how the Rams were down the stretch.

Are we at peak Patriots? And where do your numbers land?

I make it Seattle by six and a half to seven; they’re peaking across offense, defense, and teams, Darnold looks settled, and New England’s defensive grades came against a soft quarterback slate.

Seattle faced one of the toughest schedules; among similarly tested teams, the Super Bowl record is eight and three.

Loved the NFL Films clip where a rookie lineman spotted a tell and Leonard Williams cashed it with a sack—great in‑game problem solving.

And the Drake May–Josh McDaniels pep talk was goosebump stuff—compose yourself and own the moment.

Any on‑field stat that really dings a young QB here?

Mike Macdonald’s scheme versus quarterbacks under twenty‑five has been nasty the last two seasons—one and nine with a pile of picks—so Seattle’s disguise game is a real test for May.

Give me the Patriots case in a sentence.

As a dog, May’s offense has scored well and covered, and the extra prep helps their plan.

One caveat: one of those wins flipped after Lamar got hurt.

MVP board—what’s live and what’s a trap?

Shaheed feels priced up; value leans Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith‑Njigba, while Drake May’s relatively short number is unusual for this size dog.

It’s a quarterback league—non‑QBs need a mammoth day or a signature play to steal it.

JSN has splash‑play equity; one highlight grab plus volume could thread the needle if Darnold isn’t spotless.

Non‑QBs need that iconic moment, and the narrative machine would love a Darnold redemption arc.

Evan, what have you actually bet?

I hit Drake May rushing over early before it steamed, played Stefon Diggs longest catch under, and parlayed Seattle first half with full game at plus money; I’m also on the first quarter under.

Co‑sign first quarter under seven and a half.

First quarter unders have a solid Super Bowl track record, and key numbers matter.

Evan, you’re the best—go read his Super Bowl 60 primer. We’ll be back next week with props and final cards; watch on YouTube, subscribe, rate and review on your podcast app—five stars and your honest take. Feedback is a gift; love you.