Software Stocks Implode, Claude's Hit List, State of the Union Reactions, Trump's Tariff Pivot

Welcome back to your favorite chaos factory. Yes, we joked about going full conspiracy hour, but our AI pick pushed us into a different wildfire: Anthropic’s moves hammering sectors and spooking investors. After three product drops in February and a fresh CoBOL modernization pitch, stocks slid hard, so is this just people trimming at the top or a real AI repricing of whole industries?

I see a tactical de‑risking where funds shrink positions, and a deeper shift from asking when cash flows wobble to asking if they survive at all in an AI world. That flips the math: lower PEs and revenue multiples, higher discount rates, and a big margin of safety until durability is clearer, which also hits things like stock‑based comp and retention.

Then an X‑viral “2028 crisis” fanfic claimed AI juiced margins, killed jobs, crushed demand, and unwound the economy, even routing payments off cards into stablecoins; it helped whack fintechs on Monday. Is that serious analysis or a spooky story that traders used as cover, Sacks?

The virality looks suspect since a co‑author ran a short book in the names it dunked, and the whole piece reads like fiction dressed up as macro. Derek Thompson’s right that we’re trading sci‑fi narratives because real data on AI’s economy‑wide impact is thin, so confidence in any forecast should be low.

SaaS used to be a clean growth annuity with easy metrics like ARR and net dollar retention, and now AI introduces pricing, product, and category leaks that are hard to model. I do not buy the doomer spiral, but I get why the multiple gets cut while everyone figures out what AI shifts from incumbents to new offerings.

So where’s the upside, Freeberg—open source, deflation, or just thinner profits for everyone?

AI ramps leverage on time and capital so fast that we might hit an upper bound on consumption for the first time. If knowledge work compresses into tools, the question is not whether output jumps, it is whether there are enough buyers on the other side of that productivity.

Early signals cut the other way too: top labs still bid huge for engineers, postings are up, and company formation is surging. Jevons paradox says cheaper software creation expands demand, and Fortune 500s are still under‑softwared, so higher coder productivity can feed more build, not fewer jobs.

Expect total operating expense as a share of revenue to drop, but a bigger slice of that spend to swing toward technology.

We leaned in with agents and it is nuts: we redeployed SDR‑type work to Claude‑based workflows that pull sponsor intel, update CRM, and run all night, plus an ops agent that digests email, meetings, threads, and helps managers. It even hunts thumbnail and title improvements weekly, bakes them into its skills, and we’re seeing steady efficiency gains without adding headcount, at work and at home.

To buy time for this transition, big tech will need to hoard cash and likely rethink stock‑based comp so they can spend years experimenting without burning the cap table.

The people who adopt this stuff become multiples more valuable, and the startup barrier is now a small team plus agents, not a few million in seed. Open models we stood up already cut our token bill while letting us build or replace classic SaaS on the fly.

It is still unclear whether models, apps, or chips capture most value, and enterprises will move slower due to change management. Physical constraints like energy, land, and chips will also cap the near‑term speed of any utopia or doom.

Token demand could jump by an order of magnitude as prices per output token collapse, which drives a capacity crunch. Local pushback already killed multiple gigawatts of planned data centers, and at roughly ten billion of revenue per gigawatt that is tens of billions left on the table.

The president’s ratepayer protection pledge makes sense: have hyperscalers fund their own AI power behind the meter so residential bills do not rise, and let excess juice flow back to the grid. That balances progress with pocketbook protection and blunts the build‑nothing‑anywhere crowd.

Data moves at near light speed, so these facilities can go anywhere, and countries that welcome them will capture jobs, power buildouts, and follow‑on industries. They occupy a tiny footprint, and self‑powered sites lighten grid load rather than burden it.

The Gulf states are already racing to host this buildout, and the water panic is overblown given recirculation, so the pledge is a sharp move.

Separate issue, utilities can still push rates up under their capital‑spend model regardless of data centers, so regulators need to police incentives and accountability.

Look at Micron’s mega‑fab in New York stalled by a handful of plaintiffs while Texas throws up factories in record time.

Most locals want the jobs, but a few lawsuits can freeze projects even after years of environmental review.

A lot of the resistance is emotional backlash to big tech and unequal gains, so you need mechanisms that let communities share upside or they will keep saying no.

On to the marathon State of the Union—longest in decades—with a theme of strength at two hundred fifty years despite softening approval. What stood out for you?

The dramatic outbursts from the progressive caucus, a strong law‑and‑order push, and a fun nod to our friend Brad Gerstner all popped. I also support prioritizing citizens while building a sane path to citizenship, which most Americans can hold in their heads at once.

Democrats sat on a string of mainstream issues, which is why the speech scored so well with viewers, and it underscored how far the party has drifted into performative extremism. The president hit a series of eighty‑twenty positions and they still refused a polite clap.

His counterpunch style also makes cooperation harder, and both sides need to relearn basic dealmaking instead of turning every moment into trench warfare.

If there is one bipartisan constant, it is love of spending, and with that palate cleanser it is Science Corner time.

Life Biosciences just got the green light for the first human trial delivering Yamanaka factors into the eye via AAV, with a doxycycline on‑off switch, aiming to rejuvenate retinal cells and restore vision. If it works like in animals, it becomes the first clinical proof that epigenetic reset can reverse aspects of aging in people.

The same approach could extend to joints, skin, and more as we reset misplaced epigenetic marks so cells act young again, but we are still in the early innings.

Last up this block, the Court swatted down the emergency‑powers tariffs and importers already want refunds; what now, Sacks?

The tariff regime is not ending because other laws allow short‑term duties under Section one twenty‑two and longer‑term actions under Sections three zero one and three three eight, and the dissent basically mapped the path. Do not expect Washington to hand back a fortune while we are this deep in debt, especially with tariffs polling well and supporting better trade leverage.

The experiment worked by exposing bad imbalances and helping rebuild the middle of the economy, so Congress should now make a durable framework.

Whatever you think of tariffs, it was reassuring to see the Court apply the law in a way that did not track simple partisan lines.

The healthy outcome is a negotiated, predictable tariff tool set between branches so policy does not swing by executive whiplash.

Both parties need to stop weaponizing the courts and quit the pardon games. Let’s back moderates who will actually work together, in the midterms now and with centrist tickets in 2028, because the chaos helps no one.

That’s another great ride. Like or subscribe if you feel like it, thanks many times over, love to David Sachs, David Friedberg, and Chamath, and I’m the self‑proclaimed greatest moderator, JCal. See you next time.

The fans ran with the bit, and I spin it into a goofy riff. Then I cap it with an over‑the‑top joke about everyone just getting a room to blow off all that fake tension.

I play along with a string of whats and send the love right back.