Sharp or Square - FINAL AFC & NFC Conference Championship NFL Playoff Bets: Rams-Seahawks, Patriots-Broncos

Welcome to Sharper Square, part of The Volume, the betting show that sharpens squares and makes the wise guys pay attention. I’m Chad Millman with my BFF and compadre, pro bettor Simon Hunter.

It’s game day, the calm before the storm. Maybe we get one of those forever plays today; I was joking we’d just call Caleb’s fourth down heave that throw.

First up, New England at Denver: the line crashed from plus five and a half to plus three and a half, and we locked Broncos plus four and a half in the contest and took the over. Are we still aligned with the market love for Stidham and this matchup?

We grabbed Denver early and the steam backs it up; the roster around Stidham is good, Payton thrives with backup QBs, and our futures got shorter. Even with Franklin limited, Dobbins out, and Mac Hollins likely back for the Pats, I still like the dog and the over.

I loaded Stidham volume props and built a same game parlay with Drake May rushing because New England’s run defense forces throws and Dobbins is out. Any prop you prefer?

Stidham rushing yards over fits how Payton will lean on quick game and scrambles, and I’m fine with the total even at forty three and a half. Both QBs can create turnovers, both offenses finish in the red zone, and a late flurry can still push it over.

On Seattle minus two and a half as our brass balls bet, make the case you gave me.

It’s a nasty spot for the Rams: overtime on the road, short rest, now a fourth straight road trip, while Seattle is fresh and leaning defense-first. History buries teams in this hole, Seattle’s special teams grade near the top while the Rams’ unit has struggled, and McVay’s fourth downs can backfire; Stafford can still dice them and Darnold has struggled, but I prefer Seattle.

In the contest props, we took Stidham to throw an interception and Jackson Smith and Jigba to not score; walk through the math.

Stidham to throw a pick is around minus one forty in the market so we’re getting a deal, and JSN no touchdown is plus EV because his season rates don’t justify a better than fifty percent anytime price and our number is friendlier than market. One more edge from Evan Abrams: teams off an overtime playoff win are six and thirteen straight up next round, and one and eight when they also have a rest disadvantage.

Our five are set: Broncos plus four and a half in the contest, still like it at three and a half but hunt for a four if you can, the Denver game over, Seahawks minus two and a half as the brass balls pick, Stidham to throw a pick, and Jackson Smith and Jigba no touchdown. We’re back tonight after Rams and Seahawks to relive the glory and the misery; watch on YouTube at Sharper Square, subscribe on Spotify or Apple, drop five stars, and until tonight, love you.