Best of The Herd

Tuesday in Chicago, we’re rolling into the playoffs, and I opened with Mets–Dodgers to make a simple point: money isn’t a strategy—competence is. The Dodgers tossed their sixth starter and still blanked a star-salary Mets team, while New York baseball drowns in noise and light bats; salary caps don’t fix bad decisions either, as the same NFL teams keep tripping over themselves.

An anonymous players poll had OKC, San Antonio, Boston, and Denver at the top while the Knicks were nowhere, and that tracks with star math. I love Jalen Brunson, but undersized guards rarely carry titles, so New York still needs a true apex piece—which is why a Giannis swing has always made sense.

I’m pushing back: the Knicks are top ten in offense and defense, healthy, and playing like a contender. I even called them to come out of the East.

I worry about matchups—New York doesn’t guard the three well and Boston feasts there, and physical teams can shove them off their spots—so I don’t buy a deep run.

My playoff calls weren’t meant to be spicy. Lakers bounce in round one, Wemby’s minutes spike, Knicks fall to Boston in round two, Spurs–Nuggets becomes the best series, and Boston reaches the Finals; I’d love Celtics–Nuggets, but I lean OKC to win it all.

That might be the safest five-pack ever, and I still agree with them. Given the injuries, if Houston loses to the Lakers it’s a disaster—LeBron might be the best player in the series, but the next handful belong to the Rockets, Durant needs this stop to work, and I hated San Antonio sitting Wemby in the finale and gifting Denver an easier path.

If the Lakers get swept and the new owners are cold‑eyed, what does that mean for LeBron’s future?

He embraced a Swiss‑army third role because it was the only fit with Luka and Austin, but the moment he had to be the engine again, he looked like one, and I don’t think he wants to finish as a deluxe role player. Spots where he’s clearly a top‑two option—New York, Golden State, maybe Denver—will be tempting.

Back to New York: the market turns good into great and great into legendary, and I don’t think Brunson sits with Wembee, Jokic, Ant, or Tatum; isn’t he best as a number two, and doesn’t that cap them against Detroit and Boston?

Brunson’s a worthy All‑NBA and can be the second best player on a champion, but nobody around him leveled up—Bridges was fine, O.G. was role‑strong, Towns is who he is—and Boston and Detroit jumped. I think they bow out to Boston in round two and it will feel like regression despite a solid year.

On Tatum, I see excellence without aura—the culture, front office, and Brown’s edge feel like the engine, which is why Boston kept rolling even when pieces were missing.

The roster and Mazzulla give Boston a sky‑high floor, but they had no real title shot until Tatum returned from a major injury and accepted being option two while Brown cooked. If they finish the job, we should talk less about his sizzle and more about his Duncan‑like substance.

Fair, but they can’t win without Brown either; he’s more force, Tatum’s more skill, and they’re closer than people admit.

Agreed they need each other—healthy Tatum’s a top‑ten guy, Brown around top fifteen—and that duo balance is why they’re scary. Bigger picture, this era’s stars are stuck at one ring, so the race to be first to two is wide open.

Great to see you; I’ll be waiting on your next five bold predictions.

Bold wasn’t the label on purpose—they’re just my picks.