Sharp or Square - NFL DIVISIONAL WEEKEND REACTIONS: Rams-Bears, Texans-Patriots, Broncos-Bills, Niners-Seahawks

Welcome to Sharper Square, where we try to sharpen the squares and make the wise guys lean in. I’m Chad Millman in Miami, rolling through a wild playoff weekend with my guy, pro bettor Simon Hunter.

Feeling those swings today. That Bears finish had me buzzing and gutted at the same time.

That fourth down moonball over two Rams felt like we’d borrowed Mahomes for a play, then the overtime pick yanked it away. We went one and four again, with New England cashing while our Seahawks–Niners under, the Niners ticket, the Patriots–Texans under, and the Rams ticket all fell apart in the ugliest ways.

Seattle–San Francisco was a clinic in short fields and special teams tilting the board. The under never had a fair shot after the early return, and Shanahan settling for threes made a bad matchup worse as Seattle just crushed them.

New England–Houston was death by turnovers for our total. Seventeen points came straight off giveaways, and without those freebies that game probably stays under thirty.

I expected CJ to struggle in that weather after last week, and he did, while the Texans defense dominated. Drake Maye flashed with three touchdown throws and still had rookie mistakes, and we were living on the edge with that under the whole way.

Broncos–Bills, hats off to your call on Denver, and I regret we backed off the over. Allen was working with guys who barely had time in the building, which is why I’d trade the farm to get Mike Tomlin if I’m Buffalo.

I still think you fire McDermott after another meltdown, especially the end-of-half disaster that handed away points. Bo Nix was nails before the injury, the Bills kept forcing field goals, and Allen is terrifying even in a game with four turnovers.

For anyone screaming the league is rigged, they would’ve pushed Allen through if that were true. Jared Stidham in the AFC title game is jarring, but let’s not act like we all loved Bo Nix every week the past two seasons.

Stidham is not Bo Nix, and that matters when the lights are brightest.

Producer Matt Mitchell wanted his annual reminder that fandom is pain and proof of life, so consider this our Dostoevsky moment for Bills backers. Also, I’m in Miami with Hard Rock Bet for IU–Miami, and yes, I’ll be at the book before the tailgate.

Rams–Bears, our first-half under sailed in, then pure chaos. Caleb looked glorious and fearless, which makes last year’s Eberflus detour feel like a wasted season, and I just hope his arc does not mirror Josh Allen’s heartbreak cycle.

Caleb needs steadier week-to-week play, but that throw was alien stuff and the Bears defense with Brisker played lights out while McVay kept forcing dropbacks. I’m fine with the no-call on the push-off, and road dogs who were dogs the week before went winless again, which fits the post-2018 trend.

As a fan, was seeing that play worth losing the ticket?

No chance, even if it was a jaw-dropper that only a few humans can make.

Felt like three fluky gut punches this week, but that one moment was a thrill I will remember.

We should have stuck with our over and first-half leans, but the contest forces tough choices and no hedges.

Quick chat question on CJ Stroud: fifth-year option and long-term belief, or not?

You pick it up and you pay him, then fix the line and hope the playoff habits clean up because he’s good enough to earn the shot. He is probably outside a top ten ranking for us next summer, but he’s still your guy.

My weekly picks recap: my choice was Seahawks–Niners under, brass balls was Texans–Patriots under, and my sharp-vs-square play was Bears–Rams first-half under, while Simon rode the Patriots. We’re back Tuesday for the full slate, early looks show Denver catching five and a half at home and the Rams getting two and a half in Seattle, Hoosiers down to seven and a half here in Florida, and I feel great; rate, review, subscribe, and love you.