Sharp or Square - SWEET 16 MARCH MADNESS Betting Preview: College Basketball Picks & Predictions

This is the show that sharpens the square and gets the wise guys listening all year long. I’m Chad Nolan, here with my guy and professional bettor, Simon Hunter.

It’s been tough with so few true upsets, and the portal plus NIL feel like they’ve squeezed out the old Cinderella magic. The big programs hit another gear in the last five minutes, and the gap shows.

Maybe the new underdogs are solid programs like Iowa making deep runs instead of tiny schools. Coaches are leaning older and stronger through the portal, building two-year groups that can handle March.

The chalky start tracks with the sport’s new reality, where mid-majors lose talent yearly and leagues sometimes send the wrong rep after conference-tourney chaos. Many dogs hung for 35 minutes, then faded when depth and size took over.

We saw glaring dips from teams like Virginia and SMU, but High Point’s fearless pace and Iowa’s late-game execution stood out. Texas has resources and isn’t a Cinderella; Iowa is.

College hoops still delivers edge-of-seat games in a way the NBA often doesn’t until June. Given the chalk, any futures worth grabbing now?

Houston’s path looks clean, with a home-city crowd, a grindy tempo, and a style that can bother Illinois, then a likely favorite spot against Iowa or Nebraska. Purdue’s offense is syncing again and has the size and shooting to threaten Arizona.

Every March a coach levels up; who just cashed in their reputation this time?

The carousel spins fast, and Flynn Clayman at High Point put himself firmly on the radar. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s running a high-profile program within a year or so.

High Point pours real money into hoops, so that gig is cushy enough to stay and rack up bids before jumping.

Some lifers do stay, but most outgrow the pond and chase the bigger stage and budget. Even dream locales like UNCW eventually lose their coaches when the right call comes.

Great campus or not, if USC calls, you pack.

Randy Bennett to Arizona State feels like the proven-winner playbook, and with real resources he could flip that program fast.

His balanced, clamp-down system travels, and Tempe should recruit itself. Expect an upward trend.

Thursday’s slate is Texas–Purdue, Arkansas–Arizona, and Illinois–Houston. What’s your best bet?

Purdue minus six and a half against Texas. The Longhorns beat banged-up teams, while Purdue’s efficient attack and interior strength should control the game at both ends.

Time for Simon Says—what’s the call?

I’m on Iowa moneyline at plus 110. Short dog, unfamiliar opponent, and we like the way they finish games.

Friday brings St. John’s–Duke, Alabama–Michigan, Michigan State–UConn, and Tennessee–Iowa State. What do you like?

St. John’s–Duke under one hundred forty two and a half. Pitino can scheme the post, Duke’s playing slower with sturdy transition defense, and both teams grade out as elite on that end.

If Joshua Jefferson sits, I’d take Tennessee plus four and a half against Iowa State. The Vols’ offensive boards and second chances are a real edge, but confirm the injury first.

Brass Balls of the week is Tennessee moneyline at plus 155, assuming Jefferson can’t go.

Spreads are tight, so expect some chaos; Purdue is the one favorite I’d be shocked to see bounce. I like a plus-money prop on three or more seed-line upsets in the Sweet Sixteen, and I can see paths for Illinois over Houston, Arkansas pushing Arizona, and a true toss-up feel with Michigan State–UConn.

Quick recap: Duck’s on Purdue minus six and a half Thursday and the St. John’s–Duke under Friday; Simon Says is Iowa plus 110; Brass Balls is Tennessee plus 155. This has been Sharper Square—watch or listen on YouTube and wherever you get your pods; rate, review, and leave five stars because feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you.