What's Wright - NFL Week 16 Predictions: Packers-Bears, Jaguars-Broncos, Chiefs-Titans, Patriots-Ravens & more!

Episode 406 of What’s Right with the Wright: quick favor, like, rate, subscribe, and a programming note — the next two weeks we’ll have the regular Tuesday show and the picks show will slide earlier in the week. Now to Week 16, but first the recap: a two-and-three Week 15 leaves us a hair over even on the season. I liked the logic on most plays even if two got blown out; the only one I flat-out regret was backing Cincinnati after I’d just questioned their outlook.

Let’s hit the stay-aways before your five plays.

I’m passing on Philly at Washington even though a division home dog nearly getting a touchdown is tempting; I can also see Philly finding their stride, and Washington could have an emotional dip after shutting their quarterback down. Green Bay at Chicago feels like a coin toss with injuries on one side and a young quarterback’s swings on the other, so I’ll leave it alone. Jets at New Orleans is a no-enjoyment game with shaky quarterback play, so no thanks. Cincinnati laying more than a field goal on the road is a non-starter for me. I liked Buffalo at Cleveland in theory, but with a huge game on deck and their slow starts, it smells like a workmanlike win more than a cover.

Minnesota at the Giants is a stay-away; one team looks cooked, the other is playing better, but I’m not laying a full field goal on the road. Same idea with Atlanta as a road favorite at Arizona — I don’t want to lay points with that profile, and I don’t want the Cards either. Detroit against Pittsburgh is intriguing, but laying seven against a Mike Tomlin team in December is historically dicey, even if I lean Lions. I could not take Vegas at Houston given the Raiders’ offensive line, but I’m not eager to lay a massive number either. And Monday night, San Francisco at Indy, I’m just not moved by that number.

Tennessee plus three and a half versus Kansas City — you’re on Tennessee?

I think Tennessee wins outright. There’s a clear drop from the star to the backup at quarterback, the offensive line issues remain, the emotional gear shift from constant high-stakes games to low-leverage spots is real, and key defensive availability is uncertain; getting a field goal plus the hook at home is enough for me. Side note, I’m planning to bait a buddy in our group chat into taking a bad Chiefs money-line price and then flip to the Titans.

Next, Tampa Bay minus three at Carolina.

This is a stake-in-the-ground game. A win basically locks the division, and they’re off extra rest after the Thursday game; they’ve played poorly, but I still see ceiling here and will lay three, though I’d have loved two and a half.

Dallas minus two hosting the Chargers.

The Chargers have survived on defense lately and just banked two emotional wins; their path to the playoffs looks secure even with losses, so urgency favors Dallas. The Cowboys are in near-elimination mode at home and need a bounce-back; I’ll lay the small number.

Jacksonville plus three at Denver.

Denver’s been living in tight games and could be in a slight comedown spot after a big surge, while Jacksonville’s defense is heating up. Long winning streak teams are historically poor against the spread, so I’ll take the points.

New England plus three at Baltimore.

I think New England is the better team right now and I get a full field goal. Baltimore’s quarterback has been under the weather, and I’ll side with the better recent play and coach at a plus-price.

Teaser time: last week’s three-team eight-pointer missed on a late defensive score, so what’s the new card?

The teaser this week is Titans up to eleven and a half, Buffalo down to minus two, and Pittsburgh up to plus fifteen; I’d personally swap Houston in for Pittsburgh, but the legs hit the key numbers and I like the structure. Grade A from me.

No touchdown genie this week. I like this slate — feels like a four-and-one type of card, maybe even a sweep. We’ll be back Tuesday for Christmas week; please like, rate, subscribe, and review. See you soon.