Sharp or Square - Academy Awards Betting Preview with Michael Lasker

Welcome to Sharper Square, part of the Volume network—the show that sharpens the squares and gets the wise guys to lean in. It’s our Oscars episode, and yes, Simon’s walking in with a movie hot take before we dive into picks.

I rewatched Hoosiers and, man, it doesn’t hold up for me; the ‘my way or the highway’ coaching felt dated even if the vibe and performances still rule. Vision Quest also hit different seeing the full R cut.

Breaking Away still sings, and I still like Hoosiers, even if the second‑chance arc after violence wouldn’t fly today; I once used the locker‑room clap in a big ESPN deck and got a whole room clapping.

Our annual Oscars sherpa is back: Hollywood manager and encyclopedic awards savant Michael Lasker, who stunned me at brunch with how deep he goes on this stuff.

Great year for movies; the ten‑slot Best Picture lineup actually made sense. Quick reality check: it’s tough to beat the books on Oscars because precursors flood the zone—your office pool might be the better edge.

Lasker just aced a pop quiz on the 1982 film year for fun, and now we’re eyeing Best Picture where One Battle After Another and Sinners are duking it out. Simon, hit your Sinners take.

It’s a stylish vampire flick with a buzzy premise, but the finale felt like a cheat and I never saw it as ‘Oscars material.’ Hamnet’s the stronger film in my book—are voters just riding Michael B. Jordan and the moment?

Sinners broke big because it’s a muscular, crowd‑pleasing studio movie that still says something; Coogler reframes vampires through characters who aren’t genre‑savvy and layers in America’s racial history and Irish immigrant struggle. One Battle After Another hits differently—PTA built a present‑tense parable inside a father‑daughter story and then detonated a third act that’s both thrilling and emotionally earned; it’s been a banner year across the board.

I love that the box‑office monsters are the Oscar frontrunners for once; Hamnet crushed me in the best way. So does One Battle actually win?

I think One Battle takes Picture and Director, with craft wins around it, while Sinners snags Best Actor for Michael B. Jordan, Original Screenplay, Casting, and Score. Watch early tells like Editing or Cinematography—if Sinners grabs those, it could be tipping toward an upset.

I’ve got parlays tied to One Battle, so I need that outcome; I grabbed Michael B. at a huge number early and the actor race now looks like it’s tilting his way.

Best Actor is the chaos lane—you could hedge all five and sleep fine. I lean Michael B., with Timothée right there, but Leo, Ethan Hawke, or Wagner Mora wouldn’t shock me; voters may ‘make Timmy wait’ while Michael’s first nod at thirty‑nine plus a dual role gives him lift.

I’m all‑in on Michael B.—Friday Night Lights forever—but Marty Supreme drove me nuts; it felt long, loud, and stuck on one gear despite being set in an era I adore.

I liked plenty in Marty but didn’t love the whole; two late emotional swings didn’t fully land, and the relentless chaos got repetitive even if the world‑building was wild.

On Lead Actress, Emma Stone was terrific in Bogonia, but Rose Byrne gutted me in If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You; why is Jesse Buckley running away with it for Hamnet?

Buckley’s on a sustained rise, delivered a weightier turn inside a heavily‑nominated film, and that momentum matters; Rose is a live spoiler and Kate Hudson impressed too. Hamnet’s last act shows art as repair, and Chloe Zhao steers it beautifully.

Two Buckley nuggets: she’s a killer singer, and that primal scream when the child dies was an unplanned third take that ripped the air out of the room.

Her range is the point—whether or not she had kids when filming, she channels something raw; also, seek out Wild Rose, it’s a gem.

Supporting Actress is where things get funky; does Amy Madigan in Weapons edge Teyana Taylor from One Battle?

I lean Amy—she sneaks in with a fearless, villainous turn that floors you and this might be her best‑shot moment; Teyana is electric in act one and still very live. Those categories love left‑field wins.

We closed with another pop quiz Lasker drilled, then teed up March Madness Tuesday and more NFL win totals Thursday. Like and subscribe on YouTube, rate the pod, and send the feedback—until next time, love you.