About this episode
Chad Millman and Simon Hunter dive into their betting results from an absolutely bananas NFL Week 15, checking in on the gambling action after some tremendous action. Plus, we get all their early NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, best bets and leans now that the Sharp or Square Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest is officially underway! Games recapped today start off with Josh Allen leading his Buffalo Bills to a comeback victory over Drake Maye and the New England Patriots, and the Kansas City Chiefs elimination from a playoff spot by the LA Chargers, as Patrick Mahomes suffers an injury. Simon and Chad cover Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens defeating Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals, as well as Shedeur Sanders and the Cleveland Browns getting their bells rung by Caleb Williams and the favored Chicago Bears. We get the scoop on Jared Goff and the Lions in their NFC showdown versus Matt Stafford and the LA Rams. And of course the guys discuss Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers against Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos. And our hats are off to Philip Rivers for his heroic effort with the Indianapolis Colts against the Seattle Seahawks earlier today. #Volume 0:03:00 - START 0:06:13 - LA CHARGERS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 0:11:30 - BUFFALO BILLS VS. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 0:20:58 - DETROIT LIONS VS. LA RAMS 0:27:50 - GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. DENVER BRONCOS 0:34:30 - CAROLINA PANTHERS VS. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 0:39:00 - WASHINGTON COMMANDERS VS. NEW YORK GIANTS 0:42:06 - Shame On You 0:52:21 - EARLY NFL WEEK 16 BETS -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_ See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Episode summary
Welcome to Sharper Square on The Volume. Ups and downs everywhere, injuries to stars, and a card that could’ve swung if we’d pivoted off the Chiefs; we’re two and two with Vikings plus five and a half still live.
Same old two-and-two sweat; once again we need the night game to land a winning week.
Chiefs-Chargers flipped on us fast, and the Mahomes torn ACL news hit right as we sat down; brutal for the league and a disaster for our card.
Stick a fork in it, Chiefs fans; we felt fine at 13–3, then the Chargers outplayed them, pros kept chasing Kansas City all month, and that train finally derailed.
Second half was a meltdown: missed tackles, a neutral-zone penalty on a money down, and two red-zone picks including one at the one; even when the defense held to field goals, the offense had nothing.
If your defense allows sixteen, you can’t finish with thirteen and call it a day; they just didn’t show after halftime.
On to Bills-Patriots, and before kickoff we asked Matt Mitchell for his coping mantra; he promised not to let a regular-season Bills game ruin family Sunday and teased an adorable payoff if they rallied.
Down twenty-one nothing, I bribed my kids with anything they wanted if Buffalo came back; my five-year-old chose a cookie in a bubble bath, and Dostoyevsky was right—suffering made the win euphoric.
The first half felt lopsided with a missed challenge and quick reviews going the other way, Drake May dealing, and the Bills stuck in mud.
I was furious McDermott didn’t challenge, then remembered the live-Josh-Allen rule when they trailed; Buffalo’s tempo kept May off the field, and New England lost rhythm.
Buffalo scored on five straight drives, flipped the yardage by a few hundred after halftime, leaned on the run for a full march, and Allen still rifled a dart to Knox on third-and-long after a wiped-out score; a couple calls helped, but they earned it.
Refs swing big moments every week, but the Josh Allen factor was the handicap, and it cashed.
Rams-Lions started with Stafford gifting Hutchinson a pick and a quick Detroit touchdown, then the Rams hit the gas—Puka was uncoverable, the run game hummed, and Stafford kept stacking explosives.
McVay’s halftime tweaks were the difference; the healthier Rams front bottled the run, Gibbs never got loose, they ran for about one-fifty and threw for well over three hundred, and the second half was theirs.
Green Bay-Denver burned us early with field goals instead of touchdowns off short fields, and when Bo Nix got cooking, we were chasing.
Love had two picks, the Packers stalled in the red zone, and Denver bent but didn’t break; then the headline cascade hit—Mahomes ACL, Micah Parsons feared ACL, Davante Adams hamstring—just a rough news day for stars.
Saints-Panthers was chaos late: Tyler Shough’s QB draw plus a personal foul set up the winning kick after he led the game-tying drive; I thought Bryce Young would steal it, but the Saints finished.
Fading Bryce as a favorite keeps paying; Shough was poised, efficient, and led them in rushing too, which keeps my rookie ticket alive.
We also whiffed by not swapping in Washington over the Giants after talking about it all week; lesson learned.
Hindsight hurts, but the shutout trend stays hot—teams blanked the week before are unbeaten against the number in their next game this season.
Listener question: are the Niners the NFC team to beat; I lean Rams right now given San Francisco’s defensive injuries and how L.A.’s top-end guys are rolling.
San Francisco’s path is still cushy, and that defense plays hard weekly; coaching on that side—Salah or Flores types—deserves love.
Shame on Patriots fans for the first-half victory lap against Josh Allen; that chest thumping aged fast.
Shame on the Chiefs’ personnel plan—receiver, line, and backfield issues lingered since last February, they banked on Mahomes’ magic, and the roster never got fixed.
Hero of the week is Tyler Shough; he steadied the Saints and revived a futures ticket I’d left for dead.
I’ll give a nod to Philip Rivers—five years retired, he covered a double-digit spread and almost stole the upset; that’s wild.
For the Hall of Fame debate, I’m out on Rivers—postseason has to matter—and our audience was down on Cam Newton, too.
Early leans: I grabbed Bears as short home dogs versus banged-up Green Bay, Chargers as a dog indoors against Dallas, and Patriots catching points at Baltimore with something off in the Ravens’ offense; I’ll wait for a better number on Carolina-Tampa.
So the watchlist is Carolina plus one and a half if it ticks up, Chargers plus one and a half, Bears plus two and a half, and New England plus two and a half or three. We cashed Rams and Bills, lost Packers and Chiefs, and we’re riding Vikings plus five and a half tonight.