Sharp or Square - SUPER BOWL LX BETTING PREVIEW: New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks Picks & Predictions

Welcome back to Sharper Square, the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I’m Chad Nomey with my BFF and proprietary professional bettor, Simon Hunter.

Super Bowl week is bittersweet. It’s the biggest game of the year, but it’s not a normal Sunday for anyone who lives football. Still, there’s no bad matchup for us because we’re gamblers.

Quick conspiracy laugh to start: that NFL poster back in September basically had this Seahawks–Patriots script baked in, and we still didn’t grab the matchup at those wild prices. This is the longest-shot Super Bowl pairing in decades, and we whiffed.

The odds made sense given all the unknowns. Seattle winning that division shocked me more than Burrow’s early Bengals run, and Drake May getting here is even wilder. Since mid-November Seattle’s been the most complete, best-coached team.

Sam Darnold’s play dipped hard late, so defense carried Seattle. Meanwhile, the usual trend of two top-five odds teams making it broke again, like the Bengals year. Evan Abrams joins Thursday with the big trend dump.

Line check: Seattle is minus four and a half with a total around 46 after an opener of three and a half. I grabbed the Seahawks at three and a half and tried to pry a read from you, Simon.

I told you to take the three and a half because it was only going up. Simon says: blindly play the first-quarter under in the Super Bowl; I’d love 10 or 10 and a half, but even seven and a half is playable. My number is Seattle minus seven, and this opener felt short.

If you like the dog, grab points and consider an alt of minus two and a half on their side because Super Bowls rarely land one or two. If you like Seattle, I’m taking alt minus six and a half too. That early push up was sharp money, not public.

Yes, dogs have been profitable in Super Bowls since 2004, but this market is so pro-heavy that fading the public isn’t a real edge. When both favorites swept the conference titles, the Super Bowl favorite is five and zero against the spread since 1991. I’m leaning heavy Seattle.

A giant Patriots moneyline bet hit Circa right away. Maybe public, maybe not, but I’m already Seahawks-leaning and not hunting for reasons to bail.

A pro would’ve waited for a better number. Models under-grade Seattle because of Darnold’s turnover profile, just like they over-loved the Rams. Some pros already grabbed Seahawks alts into double digits; blowout paths exist.

Narratives aside, the on-field matchup is stark. Seattle’s run defense is elite by a mile, so New England has to throw with Drake May and win downfield without Rams-level weapons. They’ve had schedule and weather breaks; this is a step up.

Regular-season stats can mislead, and the Patriots’ O-line is rough. The last good offense they saw lit them up late. Seattle’s play-action will stress them, and McDonald adjusts fast. Expect a spy on May, and turnovers likely swing this.

I’ll sprinkle weirds like first score being a safety and a defensive touchdown because Super Bowls pop for those. I’ll be patient on the side, but this feels like a mismatch toward Seattle.

Brady’s note on JSN was perfect: he’s hard to track because they move him everywhere and scheme him open. That, plus both coaches wanting to avoid QB-losing mistakes, makes the under tempting.

Gonzalez is good, but JSN’s craft is a different problem. McDonald with extra prep gives young Belichick vibes. Sure, legends can be born here, but the Patriots showing up in about twenty percent of all Super Bowls fuels the hate. I still want Seattle.

Pros hit the under from 46 and a half to 46.

First-quarter under is my biggest angle. Full-game under can wait for the Santa Clara weather; it could move two points. If you need a bet now, Seattle is the position.

I’m on Seahawks minus three and a half, a long-shot MVP on the Seattle QB, a special-teams long shot for MVP, and Kenneth Walker over on receiving yards. I wish I’d bet more at three and a half.

Chad is the greatest bettor alive. There you go.

Vrabel as a sizable dog scares me because he aces game management. If you’re laying points to him, you have to earn it.

I respect him, but this Patriots team feels a year early against a more complete Seahawks roster. I’ll fade the Vrabel aura at this number.

Contest heads to the final week. Props on deck include first-half markets, JSN TD over a half, Drake May completions, and Ramondre Stevenson rushing, which pros are already driving down.

Listener Bryth is sitting on 65 to one Seattle and 120 to one New England and asked about next year’s longshots.

I’m not into Giants or Titans at those numbers. I like Browns around 130 to one if the QB health returns and Schwartz is elevated, Chiefs at about 15 to one feels like value, and I still have a soft spot for Bucs around 40 to one if the defense clicks.

This has been Sharper Square on the Volume Podcast Network. We’re back Thursday with Evan Abrams for Super Bowl trends. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square, hit subscribe, rate and review on your podcast app, and leave us five stars.