THE HERD - Hour 2 - The top of the AFC East, Drake Maye and the Patriots might be closer than you think, Julian Edelman

Hour two. The NFL’s secret sauce is hope. You get grown men out of college, ready to play, and a cheap rookie quarterback lets you build fast. NIL is jamming that pipeline a bit; top guys can stay, which shrinks the draft’s QB optimism for bad teams. That hurts the one o’clock window and undercuts the league’s sell of we’re a quarterback away, at least short term.

Buffalo beating New England felt bigger for the Bills. If Drake Maye and Vrabel swept them, that sticks. I don’t ding the Patriots; they still need more draft help up front. How do you see it?

They’re not there yet. Young team, started hot, but you’ve got to finish games and seasons, and they’ve struggled in the red zone while shorthanded on the line. The plan ran dry late, and missing key defenders mattered, but a loss like that can reset the urgency for the stretch run.

Can one moody star derail a locker room, or can a strong culture absorb it?

It comes down to leadership. In our building, if you acted above the team, you didn’t last, because the best player set the standard and took hard coaching. When your top guys do the little things right, the rest can’t fake it.

Dark horse for me is Houston. Their defense smothers you. What’s it like facing a truly elite unit, and does this Texans group have that feel?

Against those great Ravens groups, even top offenses had to shrink the game because they were talented, connected, and knew your tells. Houston gives me that vibe of those Giants teams that got hot with defense. With C.J. settling in under the current play-caller, they’re scary because their coverage is sticky and they’ve got dudes at every level.

Interceptions: some great quarterbacks throw them. I care more about where they happen than the total. How did you guys treat picks?

Ball security ruled everything. Turnover margin wins. Take your shots in the right spots, but red zone or first-down picks are killers. Situational awareness is the separator; in the playoffs, protecting the ball is how you advance.

Here’s my Super Bowl bubble and the teams with fatal flaws. I don’t buy San Francisco’s defense, the Chargers’ line is a mess, and Philly’s offense hasn’t clicked for months. Anything you hate there?

That tracks. You can’t run street free agents in front of your quarterback and survive, and the Niners keep proving doubters wrong but may lack defensive star power. Chicago’s close yet untested in must-pass, and we’ll see how New England responds. Seattle feels fringy; Buffalo worries me most if they’re healthier on defense, and the Rams haven’t really been punched yet and are vulnerable at corner. Most of these teams need to play from ahead to let their defenses tee off.

Great seeing you, Julian. I keep coming back to Houston’s defense and the Rams’ offense as the best two units in the sport. Watch with the sound down and you can feel it. Rams–Seahawks will be a blast and a big spot for Sam Darnold.

Jerry Jones floated the idea of sitting starters down the stretch. If they’re out, I’d park the vets and find out who can make next year’s roster.

You can’t ask Dak to tank, and you don’t want injuries from rust. They’ve got two first-rounders and don’t need a quarterback, so draft slot matters less. They can still land an edge or a tackle and maneuver for depth.

On Thursday night, keep an eye on Devonte’s hamstring. Even if he’s a long shot, the Rams have bodies after getting Tutu back. Seattle’s left tackle missed practice, so I’m expecting a cautious, low-scoring first half.

College rematch time: Alabama–Oklahoma. Kalen DeBoer’s name is out there for Michigan, but inside the locker room they’re handling the noise. Who do you lean?

Oklahoma out-gained them last time but gave it away with turnovers. If Alabama’s backfield is healthier, I’d lean Tide, though the lack of real injury reports makes it guessing. My favorite futures flier is Texas Tech to win it all; they’re healthy, overlooked, and don’t have a glaring hole.

That’s the NIL effect I love. It’s broadened the map, letting well-funded collectives lift programs we never discussed in December. The fear that it would only help the blue bloods missed this rise.

One more thing. The Chiefs feel a lot like the Warriors late in their run—conditional and nostalgic. Who’s their fourth-best player today? Wideout has been a draft minefield, and they’ve spent picks there while the roster thinned. Compared to the Rams, Lions, and Eagles, Kansas City may need a mini-rebuild, move a valuable piece like a top corner, and restock around Mahomes and their core. Hard choices now beat a hard life later, especially with Harbaugh and Payton in the division turning up the heat.