3 & Out - AFC and NFC Championship Weekend Preview

Remember when Jared Stidham won an AFC title game? Yeah, nobody saw that, and it sets the tone for a weird, bittersweet week where there are only three games left and we’re both running on dad sleep.

It flies by every year; I grabbed Denver early at five and a half but I’m rooting for a Patriots win by three so the Super Bowl matchup is actually compelling, because Rams or Seahawks against the Broncos would likely be a dud.

Let’s rewind to Buffalo; if you walked into that locker room, the heartbreak was obvious, and it felt like the end of a chapter with McDermott out and ownership looking shaky compared to the Ravens’ steadiness—what’s your read?

Allen deserves heat for that game, but across his playoff body of work the defense and game management have repeatedly failed him, so a scapegoat was inevitable and McDermott fit while Bean’s roster choices also deserve scrutiny.

Bills fans are dying inside at the thought of New England getting right back to the big one, and CJ Stroud’s implosion was so rough it would’ve gotten a QB benched in past eras while his defense kept bailing water.

Houston blew a golden shot in a down AFC because a ‘do no harm’ approach might’ve been enough, and now they, the Bills, the Steelers and others are staring at off-season reckoning after years of saying, ‘we weren’t beating Mahomes anyway.’

On hires, McDaniel fits the Chargers’ run-game DNA, chose the tougher path over a comfy Eagles coordinator gig, and if he elevates Herbert he’ll be a head coach candidate fast.

I love the fit once the tackles are back, we overreact to tiny playoff samples with quarterbacks, and if you made me pick today I’d lean Chargers to win the AFC next season.

That arctic blast matters in Denver, and betting against a true backup who hasn’t taken real-season reps is usually automatic for me, so I’m taking New England and the points even if it’s a hold-your-nose play.

This is the biggest home-dog adjustment we’ve seen in a conference title game in decades, Stidham knows the system behind an elite line with a top play-caller, the crowd and uncertainty favor Denver, New England’s line is leaky under pressure, and while it could go sideways I make this closer to three and took the Broncos with the number.

Main event time: Seattle’s weather looks manageable, and it’s either Seahawks to cover or Rams moneyline for me because the prior meetings swung on turnovers and special teams, and if Sam Donald plays controlled in that Shanny/Kubiak rhythm the Rams can absolutely steal it.

Donald’s oblique plus pressure is a bad combo, Seattle’s left tackle situation is shaky, special teams leans Seahawks, but if this hits three I have to take the Rams given they were short-handed while dropping nearly 600 yards in Seattle and this is pure chess between McVay and Macdonald with personnel tweaks and bracketing decisions on Nakuha.

On third-and-medium the Rams can lean on Adams and Puka as chain-movers, that grinder win in brutal cold traveled well, and if Stafford’s dialed in they’re a tough out.

Nakuha’s eruption in Seattle without Adams was one of the seasons’ wildest stat lines, and I honestly think the winner here hoists the Lombardi.

Travel sets up sweet for the NFC winner while New England would be crossing the country twice, and with the look-ahead prices dead-even who would you rather face?

I’d slightly prefer Seattle because the Rams would really benefit from a two-week reset, and while it’s hard to see Denver beating either, give me a Patriots matchup for pure entertainment.

If that ice storm knocks your power, hunker by the gas fireplace with a charged phone and a little whiskey; stay warm and we’ll catch up soon.