Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America

I’m trying to make sense of conflict everywhere—Ukraine, Iran, riots, economic shocks. You know this history better than almost anyone I’ve spoken to, Sarah: where did the dominoes start falling?

History doesn’t begin at one point. Older continental powers treat territory as power, grabbing land and burning wealth. The alternative—maritime trade and industry—compounds wealth through commerce, rules, and cooperation. Your card works abroad; nobody simply confiscates what you build. It’s fragile, though. If it dies, nobody’s money is safe. What matters more than those coming after us?

You think we’re heading toward wider war. People have worried about that since the Second World War. What makes this moment different?

You can’t count disasters prevented. Governments stop invasions, unsafe bridges, illiteracy; a normal day feels like nothing happened, when normal is the achievement. Now reckless people are at the helm. Wars are easy to ignite and horribly difficult to end, because the losing side keeps escalating.

Take Iran. You call it an astonishingly incompetent war. Surely people around a president modeled the consequences?

If war is unavoidable, shift burdens onto your opponent and limit your costs. This has damaged America’s economy, alliances, and confidence in the global economy while Iran suffers too. You assess their strengths, your vulnerabilities, and other players. Narrow waters close, bases become inaccessible, supply lines absurdly long. That thinking appears absent. We replaced qualified people with ideological purges and testosterone tests. Great, Pete.

What did they imagine? Trump talks about Canada, Greenland, Venezuela, and Iran as if countries are real estate and war will be quick.

That’s Type A American hubris: assuming every important decision happens in America. Type B is tech-bro hubris: brilliance at one thing means brilliance at everything. You need humility and divergent views. Half-court tennis means watching only Team America. Iran understands Americans rather well. Conquering or remaking ninety million people is not a hard problem with a clever solution; it’s unattainable.

You distinguish a problem from something to manage. Is that why the previous Iran nuclear agreement mattered?

Exactly. You could not eliminate the Soviet Union without catastrophe, so you contained it, sanctioned it, strengthened alliances, and got information in. The Iran agreement was imperfect but feasible: inspections and limits reduced danger at tolerable cost. Now states may conclude: get nuclear weapons or be vulnerable. That’s self-defeating. Putin strengthened Ukrainian identity; America’s Iran war has broken trust that may not return.

Others say stay out of Ukraine. We can’t keep paying for somebody else’s war while prices rise at home.

Don’t send troops everywhere. But help Ukraine succeed without your soldiers; that’s cheaper than wrecking alliances and trade. Russia’s aims look unlimited: domination, cultural destruction, empire. When surrender means death, expect ferocious resistance. Russia misunderstood that in Ukraine, as others underestimate opponents now.

Zelensky told me Russian troops brought parade uniforms, expecting victory in days. If Ukraine won’t surrender territory and Putin needs victory, how does it end?

Unlimited wars are hideous. Diplomats, institutions, and imperfect bargains are better. Ukraine carries a burden for Europe, so help them. Government must protect security and foster prosperity; letting expansionism prevail does neither. Cheaper petrol matters, but the enemy gets a vote. Show me evidence Russia stops. Its history says forward, forward, forward.

You put rising fuel and grocery prices on the Iran war, not a supposed Russian diesel deal. The bigger danger is normalizing lies?

Russia cannot export enough diesel to fix that. The shock tracks the Iran war and refinery constraints. Lies rot systems: the Soviet economy ran on distorted reports, and Moscow planned from garbage data until failure was enormous. Small losses compound into decades of lost prosperity. Wars and foolish tariffs do that. Coordinated sanctions can shrink an opponent while allies grow together.

Where does democracy fit? Dictators can’t easily reverse course, but Americans have midterms. Is voting the off-ramp?

Dictatorships can crack suddenly, but a dictator has no safe retirement, so backing down is dangerous. Democracies let you lose office without being destroyed. Reassessment is healthy. Vote for your children. Talk across party lines. Identify with security and prosperity, not a jersey. If leaders wreck both, don’t defend them.

I’m thirty-four. I grew up in an orderly Western world, but now we have wars, Gaza, AI and jobs, climate, rising costs. What do you want us to do?

I’m sorry for the mess my generation leaves you. Read. Keep learning. Speak outside your silo, civilly. Vote. There are vastly more decent people than dark personalities; do what you can in your sphere. Deliberate falsehoods are disinformation; repeating them unknowingly is misinformation. Ask why we’re acting: security and prosperity, not humiliation, party advantage, or appetite for power.

And the question we always leave a guest: what makes you emotional?

Children suffering. We are supposed to leave things better for those who follow us. Lose an election if that’s the price of doing right; don’t back continentalists and grifters. What matters more than the next generations? Nothing. Do something worthy of them.