Best of The Herd

Here we go from Chicago on a Tuesday. We’ve hit silly season before the NFL draft, so let’s pump the brakes on hot takes. Ty Simpson is not better than Fernando Mendoza. Simpson had a short run and trended down as tape piled up. Mendoza started a lot, sharpened against real defenses, and checks size, arm, accuracy, and temperament. He’s aggressive like Luck, more accurate than Daniel Jones, sturdier than Matt Ryan, and a touch stiff like Herbert, but he’s a clean eval at the top.

What’s elite physically with Simpson? That’s the question. Fifteen starts is light, and history says only rare outliers thrive with that little experience. He can charm rooms, so a rise is possible, but I doubt the top tier fit.

He probably sneaks into round one, but he’s a sit-and-learn player. Mendoza can play right away.

On the Lakers, everyone relaxed during that win streak and then Detroit, minus Cade, punched them in the mouth. Late-season NBA streaks often lie because of tanking and rest. The Pistons showed the blueprint: make it ugly, be physical, and hunt weak defenders. L.A. prefers pretty, layered half-court hoops; they hate a wrestling match.

They took Detroit lightly. If they trip against the tanking Pacers next, then the hot streak meant nothing.

Darren Peterson at Kansas has number one pick red flags. The team’s win rate was better without him, he plays in a silo with almost no table-setting, and the durability stuff stacks up. Personality matters for elevators; the great connectors pull teammates in. Red flags at one usually show up later.

Let’s not overcook it. We dinged Anthony Edwards for the wrong things, and he blossomed. Peterson finished strong, and some of those knocks feel soft for a 19-year-old. Define a real red flag. To me, durability is one, but shot diet or moodiness at that size is common.

I’m focused on what scales: can you stay on the floor and lift others. Execs are uneasy about the injuries and the solo ball. Kawhi’s a reminder that talent can be elite and still hamstrung by availability and vibe.

March coaching. Hurley, Izzo, Calipari, Pitino—they bark. In a loud arena with your season on the line, there’s no time for essays. Intensity is fine; insanity is not. In games, volume is often clarity.

Great players want to be coached and pushed. That’s how you win. If it were easy, everybody would do it.

Nick Wright joins. Wimby versus Luka for MVP. I get it’s an offensive league, but Wimby changes the geometry on defense in a way stats miss, while Luka gets targeted on the other end. That matters in an MVP race.

Wimby is already the best defender and might end up the best ever. But MVP has always leaned offense. He’s a good, not great, scorer and creator right now. Luka drives far more offense by himself. Historically this award rewards that.

Fair, but be careful crowning teams off late streaks. Physical teams still bother L.A., and playoff whistles change the fight.

I disagree on the blueprint. They’ve beaten quality teams during this run, own clutch time, and never cough up big leads. Their starters have real playoff miles. The Spurs and other upstarts are fun, but the Lakers are live. I still like Boston and OKC more, yet there’s a path.

On Travis Kelsey’s deal, I’m good with it. Mahomes, Reid, and Kelsey trust each other, and he’s money in key spots. Hard to toss aside the connection that steadies the whole thing.

It’s functionally a one-year, twelve million dollar pact with a balloon that won’t hit. At that number, he’s a top-five tight end and worth it. The Chiefs are still the class of the division. Keep the Chargers hype on ice.

Last one. LeBron hears everything, and the fit with Luka and Austin gets noisy in the playoffs when they get hunted. If you were running this, what’s next for LeBron?

I think he moves on unless they make a deep run. Cleveland, New York, or even Golden State could make sense. He’s reinvented himself as a Swiss Army knife next to Luka, which is wild this late in his career, and of course they’re better with him. Side note, Luka should take a strategic tech now to reset before the postseason. I see a top-three seed and a fun bracket ahead.

Good stuff. Hard sell to hand MVP to a guy teams hunted last night. We’ll keep it warm here in Chicago. The Herd rolls on.