Best of the week on The Herd

This is an iHeart podcast. Thanks for hanging with us. Playoff picture’s clearing up, Denver and Chicago look for real, Green Bay’s wobbling, and New England’s still rebuilding. It’s Monday, so we take our swings—where I was right and where I was wrong.

The Chiefs feel more like a rebuild than a retune; the cap, the lines, and the skill rooms need work, and the second halves keep going silent. Dan Campbell taking over play‑calling has unlocked Detroit, while lingering worries with Dallas’s offense keep showing up in situational football; the Raiders are a mess with nothing to hang their hat on beyond a couple stars; Bo Nix keeps making plays; Jacksonville’s five straight with the run defense suffocating; Philip Rivers can still function in a plan; and I’ll defend C.J. Stroud—clean pocket, beautiful ball, and real poise.

Herd Hierarchy time. I’ve got Philadelphia at ten, Jacksonville at nine, Buffalo at eight, San Francisco at seven, Seattle at six, New England at five, Chicago at four, Houston at three, Denver at two, and the Rams at one. I trust the Rams’ balance despite questions at corner, Denver beats you up, Houston’s defense is nasty, the Bears are built for winter, and the Patriots are ahead of schedule but not great in the red zone.

I like a lot of that, especially how high you are on the Niners—Shanahan’s done his best work through all the injuries—and Houston is a legit problem. My gripe is New England over Buffalo; in a wide‑open AFC, the Bills with Josh Allen are the scarier team right now.

Head‑to‑head isn’t everything, but across their meetings New England out‑schemed Buffalo for long stretches, even while banged up on the line. I trust the Patriots’ sideline more in tight spots.

Those games were close, and in the rematch the Bills walked them down with the run game and Allen playing at an MVP level among healthy players. In the AFC, I trust Buffalo more than New England, and I’m still not sold on Philly being fixed.

On Caleb Williams, I’ll live with some picks and a lower completion rate because the special throws are real. He’s a prodigy type—some plays bend reality—and that’s worth the trade‑off.

He’s stacking month‑to‑month growth, cleaning up the layups while keeping the fireworks, and the highs are already elite even if the lows can be rough. With that run game, a sharp coach, and a defense that takes the ball away, Chicago’s a tough out if he keeps ascending.

Bo Nix deserves more respect; Sean Payton saw it early and the athleticism jumps off the screen. He’s been more late‑game and off‑script than he gets credit for.

I’ve been cautious, but his last few outings have been the best of his career, and he’s trending right. My gut still says Denver’s ceiling will be capped by quarterback play unless this surge holds through January.

On the Chiefs, missing the playoffs could be healthy—a jolt that says it’s not a tweak but a reset, especially given the drop in explosives over multiple seasons. They need to rebuild key spots around Mahomes instead of patching.

This season’s a failure by their standard, and we’ll now see how much Mahomes was holding together. I don’t see a teardown—shore up pass rush, develop the receivers, find a back, take advantage of a better pick and softer schedule, and it’s the next chapter like New England after Brady’s knee year.

We both talk in chapters—there was a bench‑Bo chapter and a Bo‑as‑a‑star chapter. New info, new reads.

That’s one way to do it—and it’s why you’re the best at it.

Holiday letter time: apologies to Aaron Rodgers for calling the system outdated; to Dak for doubting the franchise‑quarterback stuff; and a tip of the cap to Jerry for swinging big. A playful non‑apology to Sam Darnold, a nod to Lincoln Riley’s recruiting heater, and a wink to a few more I’ve roasted this fall.

Love it—you just single‑handedly kept the Postal Service busy, and you still found room to jab me.

On Arch Manning, I’m skeptical of the ‘QB1 in 2027’ talk because generational guys usually flash immediately—think Caleb at Oklahoma, Trevor at Clemson, or Luck at Stanford. He can be an NFL guy, but the slow build with Texas talent under Sark doesn’t scream number one to me, and next year’s class could be loaded; meanwhile, Jackson Dart has outplayed expectations.

In the picks, keep an eye on Titans‑Chiefs; Kansas City’s injury report says rest, and Tennessee can steal it if KC sits stars.

A sharp one I like is New England hanging in Baltimore, and I lean Cowboys to bounce back hard against the Chargers. Dallas feels like a circle‑the‑wagons spot after a rough week.

The Chargers keep winning ugly, and Herbert’s hand has their pass game stuck in the mud.

Blazing Five: Bears over Packers with the run game and defense at home, Giants nip the Vikings, Bengals over the Dolphins with Burrow better late in the year, Patriots to keep it tight or win in Baltimore, and Niners over the Colts with their third‑down offense rolling. Three favorites and a couple of underdogs—let’s roll.