Best of The Herd

Happy Wednesday from Los Angeles. Big one today: after eighteen years, John Harbaugh is out in Baltimore, and it’s complicated because that building revolves around Lamar Jackson.

Lamar is adored in that city, but the playoff returns have been modest and the cap number is massive next year. Mobile stars can fade faster while the classic pocket types often age well, so I can see Harbaugh pointing to his pre‑Lamar playoff success and pushing back in those long meetings with Steve Bisciotti. The Ravens will still be well run and win plenty, and Harbaugh will land on his feet—think Atlanta, the Giants, maybe Tennessee.

Quick pivot to Packers–Bears. The chatter is all Chicago, but I always grade Green Bay on a curve. Youngest roster again, few free agents want to move there, no owner, small market—yet LaFleur keeps them competitive. Given those built‑in hurdles, that franchise has been remarkably well run over the last three decades.

On Ty Simpson, I don’t see top‑ten. If you draft a quarterback that high, you’re anointing a savior on day one, and that’s a ton of pressure. I’d hate the Jets forcing that.

Someone will reach because quarterback scarcity is real. I can see late‑first fits like the Rams or Steelers, maybe a trade‑down scenario where a team slides to the teens and takes him. Using him as injury insurance in a spot like Cincinnati makes some sense too, but landing spot will define his early arc.

For everyone who says drafting quarterbacks is random, look at the playoff field. Most starters were first‑rounders. The notable exceptions, Brock Purdy and Jalen Hurts, were supercharged by elite infrastructure—Shanahan’s play design and Howie Roseman’s roster. That backdrop matters. As for Eagles‑Niners, San Francisco can jump you early, Philly is the slight home favorite, and key Niners look on track to go. It’s a fascinating stylistic clash.

Coaching carousel tiers: Baltimore is the rare almost‑perfect opening—stable ownership, talent everywhere, star quarterback. Promising: Giants, Raiders, Falcons, each with pieces and upside. I’d punt on Titans, Cardinals, Browns for now. Baltimore doesn’t need a culture fixer; they need an offensive head coach who keeps Lamar humming. Harbaugh fits places that need a reset.

On Ty Simpson, I’m in on the first‑round grade. He’s not the biggest or the strongest, but when Alabama’s structure was right, he won with timing, processing, and anticipation, and he moves better than people think. The run game dried up, protections got predictable, and he started pressing, but the early tape shows the translation. Experience is the flag—fifteen starts is light—so I’d love him late one with a developer like McVay and time to sit.

Context can make or break young quarterbacks. Darnold and Baker were rebuilt by better coaching later. Even Allen and Mahomes benefited from great teachers and patience. That’s why landing late to a stable spot beats going high to chaos.

Harbaugh tailored an entire building around Lamar when others doubted him, and that’s elite coaching. Still, sometimes both sides need new energy. The moment that tweet dropped, he became the hottest name on the market, and Baltimore is still the premier job available.

College note: Miami’s roster is loaded with Sunday guys at every level, and that defense swarms. I like them in a street fight with Indiana. Also can’t wait to see the top two quarterbacks in the draft go head to head with Oregon on deck.

On Dante Moore versus Mendoza, I have Dante higher and I think he declares. NIL money is real, but the 2027 quarterback class could be historic, and experience correlates strongly with NFL success. The risk is landing somewhere that cannot develop him yet; the reward is first‑round growth now. I still expect he comes out.

Tomorrow, Tom Brady joins and then weekly through the Super Bowl. And this first round could be loaded—Ruben Bain looks like a top‑five type to me. We’re live in LA. It’s The Herd.