Sharp or Square - FINAL WEEK 16 BETS - Bucs-Panthers, Chargers-Cowboys, Jaguars-Broncos, Patriots-Ravens, Jets-Saints and more

Welcome to Sharper Square, part of The Volume. This is the show that tries to make the square sharper and make the wise guys pay attention. After that Bears roller coaster, I was ready to write them off again, then they flip the script with a wild finish that did not feel like the Bears we grew up with.

For three quarters it was the same old story, then belief and play design took over. Green Bay’s secondary was held together by tape, Caleb sold the run, the safety bit, and he dropped an overtime dart to DJ in a tiny window.

One reminder from that game: penalties swing everything. A face mask on third and very long kept a drive alive and changed the math. Okay, on to Sunday and our contest card—time to make some human, probably regrettable, decisions.

Tampa Bay at Carolina. We’ve waited a long time to grab the Panthers as a home dog with the hook. Are we sticking with it?

Yes. Carolina has bounced back all year and keeps games tight, while the Bucs have gone six straight without covering and their vibes are bad after those late-game collapses. The market’s drifting toward two and a half, so three or three and a half is worth locking in.

Buffalo at Cleveland, Bills minus ten and a half. This is the rock-and-a-hard-place play for us. We’re laying a big number on the road against an elite defense and a raucous home crowd.

It’s super public, but I still like it. Josh Allen usually handles heavyweight defenses, the Browns’ run D has sprung leaks, and the weather won’t spook him. The only concern is whether Buffalo’s defense handles Cleveland’s ground game, but I expect Allen plus the run game to overwhelm them.

It’s really a fade of Cleveland’s offense keeping pace for four quarters. Next up, Jacksonville plus three and a half at Denver. We don’t love the quarterbacks, but the hook is tempting—are we taking it?

We are. Jacksonville’s offense has caught fire with the run game opening shots, and Denver’s defense hasn’t seen this specific rhythm lately. The Jags’ run defense has been stingy, so Bo Nix will have to win it with his arm. At three and a half, the number is the bet.

Pittsburgh at Detroit. We grabbed Lions minus six and a half in the contest, though the market nudged to seven and a half. We’re leaning on the run-game edge and a bounce back, right?

Right. Dan Campbell teams cash after losses, and this is indoors where Detroit can turn it into a track meet. The Steelers’ defense isn’t peaking, and I don’t trust their offense to trade scores for sixty minutes. Public or not, six and a half is strong.

New England at Baltimore. The Ravens have taken pro money late, which makes me nervous. Do we still ride the three and a half?

Yes. It’s the biggest public dog, but Vrabel teams punch above their weight and New England’s run defense can muddy this up. Lamar owns December, but for Baltimore to clear more than a field goal, a lot has to break their way. I’ll take the hook.

We’ve loved Giants plus three against Minnesota all week, but the contest posted two and a half, so it fell out. Any swaps? Or are we holding?

It’s all about the number, so I’d pass at two and a half. One sharp add I like is Colts plus five and a half versus the Niners. San Francisco hasn’t faced a top opponent in a bit, their defense is banged up and light on pressure, and Indy’s run scheme can keep them off rhythm. Earlier six and a half was better, but it’s still live.

Let’s keep the Patriots in and maybe look at the Colts Monday. Our final five: Carolina with the hook, Buffalo laying ten and a half, Jacksonville plus three and a half, Detroit at our contest six and a half, and New England plus three and a half. Last ones out were Giants at two and a half, Arizona at two and a half, and I sprinkled Raiders plus fourteen and a half at Houston.

This has been Sharper Square on The Volume. We’ll be live on YouTube after the late afternoon games to take your questions and relive the agony. Watch on YouTube at Sharper Square, rate and review on Spotify or Apple, and leave five stars. Love you. We’re gonna be all day.