THE HERD - Hour 2 - Last Herd Hierarchy before the playoffs, NFL predictions, Nick Wright

Welcome to The Heard Podcast—let’s get this party started. Hour two on a Tuesday, final regular-season Herd Hierarchy, 18 weeks, 17 games, it all comes down to this. I’d hire Kevin Stefanski tomorrow if I were Vegas, the Giants, or the Titans. And if you’re a young QB like Dante Moore staring at the Jets, stay in college—Oregon’s stability and resources beat NFL chaos right now.

My Hierarchy, tight and honest: Bears at ten, tough, wind-friendly run game but vanish for halves. Niners at nine, live dogs if they’re healthy, but Kyle’s teams struggle when trailing after halftime. Bills at eight, 12 and 0 when they hit 21 points, yet they start slow and travel poorly. Texans at seven, love the defense, but red-zone threes will bite. Eagles at six, weird profile, win a lot while looking off. Broncos at five, tough at home and trusted with a full playbook. Rams at four, pass rush by committee, weapons back, exploitable deep. Jags at three, rolling like a college powerhouse. New England at two, Vrabel’s road-tested and relentless. One is Seattle—stacked roster, money drafting, efficient QB on a team-friendly deal.

Eighteen weeks in and you finally nailed the Jags. Trevor’s been a machine down the stretch, cut out the red-zone gaffes, and they’ve beaten real teams. My AFC lean is the winner of Jags–Bills; if Buffalo finally bags a road playoff win there, it opens up. If Jacksonville wins nine straight, they’re for real.

Buffalo worries me. They lag early and tense up late on the road. Against a hot Jags team, if this is tight in the fourth, I give Jacksonville the edge. The Bills probably need a convincing win.

I trust Josh Allen late more than McDermott in those moments. And with Mahomes, Burrow, and Lamar out, the field looks open—but that actually spikes the pressure on Buffalo. I can’t think of a sixth seed that’s carried more weight to reach a Super Bowl. If they lose, fair or not, it could put McDermott’s job in question.

New stadium on deck, I get why a reset would tempt them. On Sam Darnold, though—people cling to his picks like they did with Stafford or Favre, but those guys were loved through it. With Sam, the big-game mistakes stick. Where are you on the ‘reckless’ label now?

A month ago, ‘Sam Darnold, big game’ meant ugly memories. Then came the Rams comeback and the Week 18 clincher—he stayed aggressive and didn’t turtle. He believes in himself, and that helps Seattle. I think they’re the best team, even if a Rams trilogy would tempt me to pick L.A. Sam has the most to gain—or lose—on his side of the bracket.

Different heat levels for young QBs this weekend. If Caleb’s Bears offense stalls at home—better line, steadier run game, real weapons, top coach—he’ll catch fair criticism despite the franchise history.

If Chicago loses because the offense sputters, he’s behind schedule again. If it’s a defensive collapse like against the Niners, I won’t blame him. Quick Packers note: for all the praise LaFleur gets, it’s been a lot of seven seeds since Rodgers’ MVP days. With expansion, they look close every year, but you’d like a division crown and a higher seed at some point.

LaFleur’s solid on culture and scheme, not McVay’s room presence, but he’s competent. Still, if you ask me for a top coach list, I’m not sure he makes it. And yes, thanks for the birthday shout—apparently my best FS1 moments fit in 13 seconds.

Eagles host the Niners on Fox. Sirianni rested starters and trusts Jalen’s big-game reps. The line says Philly. Hertz has stacked playoff wins, and it’s wild that only Hertz and Purdy weren’t first-rounders in this field.

Smart teams see problems early; Philly moves off issues a year ahead. Wouldn’t shock me if they rethink a star wideout and draft another. As for Rams–Panthers, with key playmakers back, it feels like a revenge spot for L.A., but Carolina’s perimeter size can pop explosives against those corners. Protect against the deep ball and mind special teams.

Quentin Lake returning helps L.A. on the back end. On the NBA, the Warriors look stuck—Kerr tossed, Draymond spiraling, Snoop in the booth stole the show. If they’re a fringe play-in team, what do you do with Steph?

They should’ve retooled after beating Boston. Missed on the bridge draft picks, got old, and now live by threes with no speed or size. You’ve got the fan equity—take a big swing while Steph is still the best shooter alive.

If the Niners script hot, that game gets spicy. Credit to staffs lifting flawed rosters—Herbert dragging the Chargers, Saleh once propping up a battered Niners D. Now, back to the draft: in a rigged system where the best prospects land on the worst teams, NIL and great college situations change the calculus. If you’re Dante Moore, why run to a broken setup when Oregon treats you like a pro and pays you to develop?

Quarterbacks with a lot of college starts succeed more often. Stay in school if you can, especially now that you’re getting paid, and enter with reps and readiness.

Mendoza looks pro-ready—size, arm, movement, and reps in pro-style concepts. Dante’s talented but needs more starts before taking on NFL chaos. On Miami, run it back with Tua and McDaniel. The issue wasn’t scheme; it was roster construction. They doubled up on speed while lacking protection and a dependable backup. Tua was a Pro Bowler when upright, and quality coaching candidates are thin. Give them one more year, fix the line, and stop building a track team without a foundation. Greg Olsen is up next.