Best of The Herd

This is the best of The Herd with Colin—loaded today, stories everywhere. One team cannot stumble this weekend: Buffalo, because with Josh Allen the bar is January, the excuses are gone, and an 0-for-forever road playoff skid can’t continue in Jacksonville.

On the carousel, if the Bills flame out, Kevin Stefanski becomes the guy and the Giants would be a double-your-wins team with him, thanks to a last-place schedule, a top-five pick, and young cornerstones; don’t get seduced by a substitute-teacher bump from an interim.

Cliff Kingsbury and the GM aren’t aligned, both coordinators are out, and that’s a rough welcome for Jaden Daniels. That’s the hazard with defensive head coaches when the offensive side keeps turning over.

Exactly—hire offense if you can, because even great defensive hires end up replacing coordinators every couple years, and the Jets are the bottom of the league right now in terms of appeal.

Quick tiers: Seattle looks like the modern template with a stacked, well-drafted roster; New England is a ruthless road team under Vrabel; Jacksonville is rolling; the Rams can be had down the field but still have the coach, QB, and rush to scare anyone; Denver finishes games and is nasty at home.

Buffalo wins when it gets to twenty-one and leans on the run but they start slow, Houston’s legit on defense yet kicks too many field goals, Philly’s wobbling since midseason, San Francisco needs its injured stars back, and Chicago’s surge is tied to takeaways and weather-aided run fits.

Greg, you just had New England—do they have a real AFC path or are we getting ahead of ourselves?

After a full week on them, I think they do because the AFC is wide open and their run game plus a defense that’s sound in the right places travels. They don’t give up explosives, they don’t give up points, and that style gets even more valuable in January.

What’s with Buffalo’s slow starts when elite QB-coach pairings usually script clean early drives?

They’ve consciously shifted to a postseason build—heavy James Cook, play-action, movement, less spread-and-spray, which takes the ball out of Allen a bit early. That approach works as long as the defense keeps scores down; fall behind too far and you’re forced into hero ball they don’t want for long stretches.

Seattle gives off that fast, physical, confident vibe—any concern they’re young and Donald hasn’t lived in the playoffs?

Their offense is heavy bodies hunting explosives and their defense lives in nickel and dime to keep speed on the field, which is exactly what wins right now. If I had to ride with one, I might lean Seattle over LA because they’re balanced and built to choke off big plays while creating them.

Chicago at home—great jump this year no matter what, or a letdown if they lose?

Both outcomes are credible, and the leap was real with better QB protection, personnel adds, and culture, but living off takeaways rarely repeats. If they slip a bit next year, that’s normal; this weekend is wide open for everyone.

You’re on Miami–Ole Miss—did Miami’s NIL muscle surprise you?

Not at all—winning is core to the school’s identity and Mario Cristobal only left Oregon with full top-to-bottom commitment in writing. He’s a relentless recruiter who now has the backing to match his drive, and that’s why they’re surging.

Be honest—are you a wreck watching your ‘Canes in a tight one?

If I care, I’m a wreck whether it’s Miami or my kid’s game, but when I’m playing I’m calm; that’s just how I’m wired.

News hit: DK Metcalf is back for Pittsburgh, and Houston counters with Derrick Stingley playing at an All-Pro level. Tomlin’s postseason drought jokes aside, that matchup matters in the red zone.

With DK, Freiermuth, and backs to lean on—and strong pass protection—I like Pittsburgh to cover at home in a grinder.

Raiders drama again—should they shop Max Crosby while the value’s massive, and who bites first?

You could reset with a first and more, but he’s still unblockable in singles and a perfect anchor while you pay a rookie QB, so I get keeping him too; if there’s a fit, New England’s need for a closer up front makes sense.

NBA note: Trae Young’s camp is exploring trades, but the market’s thin in the hard-cap era despite big counting stats and that MSG bow on his reel.

On-off numbers are brutal because teams hunt him on defense in the playoffs when whistles quiet, and that’s why excitement doesn’t equal winning value; same lesson shows up when the Lakers’ flow shifts with LeBron’s usage spikes. It’s The Herd.