Best of The Herd

Busy Monday. Could this be LeBron’s last game as a Laker? Wolves rallied, Spurs lost their star when Wembee got tossed for an elbow, and I thought the refs nailed it. He’s not dirty, he’s young, and that Spurs backcourt is racing forward so fast it feels like a decade-long problem for everyone else, but youth still blows fourth-quarter leads when a grown-up like Ant takes over.

On the Knicks, take a breath. They’re rolling, but part of that surge is who they’ve faced. What’s real is how they’ve shifted creation to Kat, lightened Brunson’s load, and built a roster that actually fits; they look like the best in the East, probably an East finals team, but March mirages don’t equal June truths.

It felt louder for their fans in our building than it did at the Garden, and that stings. We need to win to flip that, because I can’t control who buys the tickets.

I’m not shocked the Knicks advanced; the sweep surprised me a bit, because Philly’s top end is legit, but the East’s middle and bottom are soft. Every postseason gifts us a hot team; that’s the Knicks right now, and credit to Mike Brown for how hard and connected they’re playing.

Slow down on the LeBron last-game talk. If Cleveland’s surging, are you really sending him back to Akron? And while we’re at it, who’s had the stronger postseason run so far, the Knicks or undefeated OKC?

OKC doesn’t mess around; they’re deep, they’re dialed, and they can run 11 or 12 real players. If every GM could poach one Knick, OG might be the first call.

Where I was right and wrong, lightning round. Rodgers loves controlling the offseason clock, and the Steelers are feeling it; I whiffed on how explosive the Knicks’ offense would be; the lottery isn’t rigged, small markets ate; J.J. McCarthy’s making it a real camp fight; Embiid is brilliant but the health bet keeps losing; Austin Reaves gets hunted in the playoffs and that caps his price; the West is getting younger and better while the Lakers have few easy outs; the Bills’ roster doesn’t deserve the cheap shots; the Dodgers aren’t breaking baseball, parity lives.

Jason Timpf is here from Hoops Tonight. You love this Knicks team—could they actually bother a young San Antonio or OKC in June?

Absolutely. They’re a different outfit now, with Kat facilitating, Brunson working more off the ball, and a real share-the-wealth offense. Against San Antonio, they can pull Wembee into space and have the size to bother their guards; versus OKC, they value the ball and generate clean threes, which cuts into the Thunder’s pressure defense—I’m done putting a ceiling on them.

Let’s get to LeBron. Given the new CBA squeeze, could he accept being the third option and a lower number to keep the Lakers flexible?

He might have to be the payroll casualty unless there’s a real plan. The Lakers lack discounted, rookie-scale role guys, so every dollar hurts, but if Rob Pelinka brings a convincing blueprint—targeted trades, smart adds—LeBron would take less because he still wants to win, not grind for a gentleman’s sweep.

Austin Reaves is a good player who gets hunted in May. What’s a number that keeps optionality?

Somewhere in the low-to-mid forties annually fits his market and still respects the cap reality. The second apron means you must hit on cheap rotation pieces, and the Lakers haven’t; that miss forces tough choices on deals like Austin’s.

Back to Spurs–Wolves. Can San Antonio win it this year, or is it still early?

They can. With Wembee on, they’ve controlled the minutes in this matchup, and his presence widens the mistake margin for young guards while erasing Wolves drives. They also match OKC cleanly; I slightly lean Spurs in that series if it happens.

You’re at the combine. Who’s the clear top pick, and what else popped for you?

AJ Debonza is a franchise-tilting number one, with Darren Peterson next as a high-end movement shooter who plays both ends. Caleb Wilson’s upside fits what Chicago needs, and his shot looks sharper in workouts.

Steve Kerr re-upped. Is there a Warriors path without mortgaging the future?

Kerr staying matters because his Steph-centric offense still hums. Skip the Giannis-sized trade; recruit older stars for one last push, keep the picks, and let Steve ride with Steph until it’s time for the broadcast booth.

If the Lakers’ owners hard-cap the offer and LeBron’s not sold, does he move or walk away?

He only uproots for a sure contender with a concrete plan; otherwise he’ll take a meaningful discount in L.A. if it comes with real upgrades. At his age, he needs proof it’s worth the wear.

Jason’s at the combine all week—Hoops Tonight at The Volume. Good seeing you. From Chicago, this is The Herd.