About this episode
The man who predicted the dot-com crash and the 2007 housing collapse warns that the AI bubble is the biggest in American history. Billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham reveals why it will burst, the exact strategy to protect your money, and why house prices need to fall 30%. Jeremy Grantham is the co-founder of GMO, an institutional investment firm in Boston, and serves as the firm’s long-term investment strategist. He is also the chairman of the Grantham Foundation For the Preservation of the Environment, and co-author of “The Making of a Permabear: The Perils of Long-term Investing in a Short-term World”. Jeremy Grantham's comments are all his personal opinions and not the opinions of GMO. He explains: ◼ Why Wall Street will never warn you when to get out of the market, and what to do instead ◼ The exact portfolio Jeremy recommends to protect your money before the crash ◼ What everyday chemicals in your food and cosmetics are doing to your fertility ◼ Why house prices need to fall 30%, and what it means for your finances ◼ Why the AI boom won't automatically lead to higher profits, and what to buy instead Chapters 00:00:00 Who Is Jeremy Grantham? 00:02:34 Will AI Become The Next Financial Bubble? 00:06:38 How Jeremy Grantham Built An Investing Empire 00:07:45 The Most Money He's Ever Managed 00:08:09 Are You A Billionaire? 00:08:58 What Happens When The AI Bubble Bursts? 00:11:15 How AI Will Change Everyday Life 00:12:33 The Investing Strategy For Right Now 00:17:52 Why You Should Avoid US Stocks 00:19:54 Why Investment Advisors Mislead Clients 00:25:32 Advice For Entrepreneurs Right Now 00:28:22 The Real Risks Of AI 00:29:21 Should AI Have A Maternal Instinct? 00:34:06 What Happens If AI Lacks Benevolence? 00:35:44 The Battle Between The Magnificent 7 00:39:10 Ads 00:41:19 Which Jobs AI Will Replace First 00:43:41 Will SpaceX Eventually Fail? 00:49:52 Should You Invest In SpaceX? 00:50:02 The Most Valuable Skill For The Future 00:51:04 Is Society Declining And What Comes Next? 00:53:25 What History Says About Wealth Inequality 00:55:58 Should The Rich Pay More Tax? 00:57:21 How To Build Wealth In Your 30s Today 00:59:31 How To Invest Your Salary Wisely 01:02:20 Should You Own Crypto? 01:03:14 Will Bitcoin Eventually Go To Zero? 01:03:27 Is Property Still A Good Investment? 01:04:37 Ads 01:06:50 What's Really Causing The Baby Bust? 01:10:50 When Could Sperm Counts Reach Zero? 01:13:47 How Microplastics Affect Fertility 01:16:04 How Pesticides Impact Fertility 01:21:05 How To Reduce Toxic Chemical Exposure 01:22:16 Why US Products Are More Toxic 01:26:52 How To Stay Healthy In A Toxic World 01:33:17 The Most Important Thing We Missed 01:34:57 Should You Move Countries Right Now? 01:35:18 The Flaw That Destroys Societies 01:38:44 The Best Places To Live Today 01:40:02 What Would You Do If Failure Was Impossible? You can purchase ‘The Making of a Permabear: The Perils of Long-term Investing in a Short-term World’, here: https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/8zyh6RB The Diary Of A CEO: ◼ Join DOAC circle here - https://doaccircle.com/ ◼ Buy The Diary Of A CEO book here - https://smarturl.it/DOACbook ◼ The 1% Diary is back - limited time only: https://bit.ly/3YFbJbt ◼ The Diary Of A CEO Conversation Cards: https://linkly.link/2hm7r ◼ Get email updates - https://bit.ly/diary-of-a-ceo-yt ◼ Follow Steven - https://g2ul0.app.link/gnGqL4IsKKb Sponsors: Stan - Visit https://coach.stan.store/?ref=stevenbartlett&utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode11 Pipedrive - https://pipedrive.com/CEO HeyGen - https://heygen.com/doac
Episode summary
If I’m earning a salary and want to invest it wisely, what should I do?
Avoid U.S. stocks, trim big tech, and skip crypto entirely.
You’re confident saying that—how long have you invested and how much have you managed?
Roughly six decades in markets, with a peak of about one hundred sixty five billion dollars under management.
You’re known for calling bubbles—how do they form and what’s different now?
Great ideas attract too much capital, prices detach from reality, and then they break; AI is a world-changing idea and also the biggest investment mania of my lifetime.
So are we close to an AI market peak in the coming years?
The data say a top could arrive soon and the hallmarks of euphoria are everywhere.
For listeners without a big cushion, how should they prepare for a downturn?
Keep it simple—diversify with cash and bonds, hold a small slice of precious metals, and if you must own equities tilt outside America.
Can you define a bond and how to buy one in practice?
A bond is a loan with a fixed interest stream that you can buy directly from a government portal or through a broker in the secondary market.
What happens to regular people when a bubble bursts?
High-flyers lay off staff, paper wealth shrinks, people spend less, and history shows the bigger the bubble, the harsher the aftermath.
How steep could declines be for the hottest names?
Drops of around seventy percent on the leaders would not surprise me, and we’ve seen worse in past cycles.
Why don’t big firms warn clients before these breaks?
Telling people to step aside is bad for business and career risk, so they keep cheering while their own analysts quietly see the math.
Where would you place equity exposure if anywhere?
Favor broad non‑U.S. indexes, including developed ex‑U.S. and emerging markets, and expect them to outpace the U.S. over the next decade.
You’re that negative on U.S. equities over five to ten years?
They’re extremely expensive, and I’ve seen entire decades here where investors finished with less than they started.
For founders, is now the moment to stockpile capital?
Yes—extend runway, add prudence, and be ready to acquire when funding tightens.
Is the market rational about AI or just riding momentum?
Prices mostly reflect crowd behavior; rising charts pull in buyers and optimism feeds on itself until it snaps.
Technologically, do you think AI is overhyped or transformational?
It will change everything, but the community is split on whether it enriches humanity or eventually endangers it.
Can we hard‑code benevolence, or do guardrails backfire?
We should try, but if models reject guidance or behave judgmentally, competitive pressure may strip safeguards and raise risk.
Explain the paperclip scenario for newcomers.
A literal objective like maximizing paperclips can lead a powerful system to consume every resource, producing catastrophe by following orders too well.
What happens to the big seven tech names in an AI arms race?
They’re shifting from separate monopolies to an all‑out fight in the same arena, spending staggering sums with no guaranteed winner.
And robotics plus AI—does that mean big job disruption?
Highly likely, which is why I prefer slower rollouts that buy time for society to adapt.
You were blunt on SpaceX and bold claims like asteroid mining and Mars—why?
It reads like peak‑cycle storytelling, and colonizing Mars ignores hard limits like radiation, gravity, and our failure to sustain closed systems on Earth.
If you were thirty‑three today and chasing wealth, what would you do?
Dive into AI, learn faster than peers, take real risk, work relentlessly, and think independently.
Circle back—what’s a resilient portfolio right now?
Put the majority in non‑U.S. equities, hold five to ten percent in precious metals, keep some real estate if sensible, and place the rest in bonds and cash.
Your take on crypto as an investment?
It’s volatile, poor as money, useful for speculation and evasion, and destined for zero someday.
Is property still a safe path to wealth?
When fewer young households can buy and demographics turn down, the bid dries up and lofty prices face gravity.
You connected markets to a fertility crisis—why focus there?
Toxic exposures are slashing sperm counts and quality, and at current decline rates the average couple could need help conceiving within a couple of decades.
What are the main culprits and what evidence stands out?
Endocrine‑disrupting chemicals from plastics and pesticides show up in human tissues, and clinical diet studies link lower‑pesticide produce to big gains in male counts and higher live‑births for women under care.
How should families act amid all this?
Policy should ban toxic chemicals, and personally I’d have pregnant women skip cosmetics and buy organic for the dirtiest fruits while phasing out things like gas stoves and nonstick pans.
Any quick tools to navigate safer products day to day?
Use trusted scanning apps to flag ingredients, and one day we need a guaranteed green marketplace people can trust.
Beyond toxins, what’s driving broader social strain?
Extreme inequality and fraying social contracts make life harder, and gentle long‑term tax shifts toward helping the bottom could ease it.
For everyday listeners, what does ‘brace yourself’ actually mean?
Save a cash buffer, upskill into practical and scientific work, build community, and think carefully about where you live.
Would you advise family to consider leaving the U.S.?
It’s reasonable to weigh countries with stronger safety nets and cohesion, given weak outcomes here like high maternal mortality.
If you couldn’t fail, what would you aim to do next?
Write a book that does for toxicity and the social contract what Silent Spring did for pesticides, and help reorient capitalism toward families and children.
Tell us about your new investing book and its lens.
It’s a long‑view guide to bubbles, value, and staying sane when optimism runs wild, and a reminder that big firms won’t save you at turning points.
Thank you—this was wide‑ranging and full of ideas I wrote down to revisit; we’ll link your book below.
By year‑end we’ll have given about a billion dollars to climate work, and I expect the coming year to be brutally hot almost everywhere.
Appreciate you sharing your decades of hard‑earned clarity and conviction.