Sharp or Square - MARCH MADNESS BETTING PREVIEW: NCAA Basketball Picks & Predictions

Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bet. Oscars went the way we called it, and now it’s the best week of the year: March Madness. We’ve got a free bracket challenge and a loaded slate, so we brought back our college hoops ace, Doc, to help us bet the wall-to-wall games.

I’m always on to the next edge, but yes, last time here we nailed that first-quarter under parlay. Let’s get back to work and get people to the window.

Bust some seed myths for us. Where’s the real upset value now that the market knows the old 12 over 5 narrative?

The gap between the top four seeds and the mid-teens is wider than it’s been, so true shockers are harder. I see more live dogs on the 11 line this year, with teams like VCU or South Florida, and maybe Akron if Texas Tech’s depth really bites.

I got sentimental about South Florida’s coach and his family story. Right team to ride?

It’s a great story, and they’re locked in. The matchup works, and the extra motivation doesn’t hurt.

Play-in time: give us your best look from the four openers.

I’m laying it with SMU. Their athleticism and shot creation should overwhelm Miami of Ohio, and if SMU’s guards get downhill and the wings keep hitting, that pace turns lopsided.

For the record, Miami of Ohio deserved a seat thanks to the season they put up, but the metrics and schedule left them here, and this is a brutal draw.

Duke sits among the short shots with Arizona, Florida, and Houston. Simon, how do you feel about your Blue Devils now?

People still love to hate Duke, and I’m fine wearing the hoodie in a sportsbook. I like this roster, but that region is a gauntlet and I don’t love the current number; Doc, any top-tier futures worth it?

Favorites are squeezed, but Duke’s path is cleaner than it looks and they’re nasty at the rim. Houston’s defense isn’t the absolute terror we’ve seen in past years, Florida’s route might be kindest, and Duke’s inside-out game with Boozer drawing fouls travels in March.

Who’s a breakout scorer that could carry a lesser-known team?

Cal Baptist’s Dominic Davis can drop forty on anyone if he gets space, and Arkansas’s A-Cuff could torch Hawaii’s coverage. Those are watch-the-box-score guys.

Quick NIL riff: it’s funny seeing recruiters like Calipari and Kelvin Sampson gripe about NIL when they’ve always landed stars.

They were using versions of those tools long before the rules caught up; now everyone can, so it feels like a disadvantage.

Let’s set Thursday. What are your best bets?

Wisconsin team total over 87.5 against High Point; Badgers push pace this year and shred pressure, so this can flirt with triple digits. Duke–Siena under 136.5 and Siena team total under; Siena lives in the midrange, short rotation, and Duke will grind possessions and sit on a lead. Idaho–Houston under 136.5; slow, physical game where Idaho’s shooting dries up against length.

How low would you still play those unders?

Duke’s full game under is fine down to about 134. Houston–Idaho is good as long as it stays above 135.

Any bracket caution for Thursday?

Don’t force upsets early; ones through fours are very sturdy this season. If you want to get frisky, look to the 11s like VCU or South Florida.

How about Friday?

LIU–Arizona under around 152; LIU slows it down and Arizona doesn’t bomb threes, so think controlled blowout. Wright State team total under 63.5 against Virginia; they need the rim and UVA’s rim protection is a wall. Cal Baptist–Kansas under 138 with upset spice; travel favors CBU’s pace control and Davis can keep it close if he’s cooking.

Before we go, give us your Final Four vibe and a fun market.

It feels chalky. I like an exotic: total seed sum of Final Four teams under nine and a half, since at least two ones should make it. Another one I like is WCC total wins over three and a half; Gonzaga can rack up three by themselves and St. Mary’s or Santa Clara can add one.

I swung with UConn to repeat. Let’s lock in our weekly picks.

Simon Says: Wisconsin to cover in the opener. Big Ten teams are battle-tested, and if the Badgers bring their A game, that can turn into a twenty-point stroll.

Brass Balls Bet of the Week: TCU moneyline against Ohio State.

I’m with you on TCU. They surged in a bruising conference and nearly stole a big one earlier; I’ve got them advancing.

Doc, thanks for the clinic. We’re back Thursday with part two of our NFL win totals. Watch or listen on YouTube or your favorite app, rate and review, five stars if you’re feeling generous. Until next time, love you.