Best of The Herd

Tuesday in Chicago, big headline up top: Buffalo just elevated Joe Brady. Good coach, but not the marquee name of this cycle, and that matters. This season taught us a simple blueprint: land the top or near‑top coach and pair him with a great quarterback on a rookie or truly team‑friendly deal; that’s how you vault.

Ask yourself two things about Buffalo: is Brady the undeniable rising star of this market, and is Josh Allen on a bargain number next year? The answers are no and no, which means the Bills will be good, but their ceiling isn’t where their fans want it.

He clicks with Allen, and that helps, but it feels flat. We saw him soar with LSU and stall in Carolina, and the Bills roster is aging with pricey holes; I don’t see an elite team here.

They’ll still win plenty because Allen is a weekly floor, and the offense has pieces, but this hire—like Pittsburgh’s—leans on comfort, not edge. That’s fine for ten wins, not for January.

On Minnesota moving off Sam Darnold with the ‘big game’ label: words matter. He swept Green Bay and Chicago, produced in the division, then nosedived late versus Detroit and got buried by the Rams’ rush. Two bad ones at the end isn’t ‘several’ all year.

Adversity forged him. Getting benched and battered can harden your edge, and he’s carried himself with real poise through it.

Minnesota drafted J. J. and chose the future; that’s the real story. The reckless‑in‑big‑spots thing became a lazy tag that doesn’t hold up outside those final weeks.

Back to Buffalo: if ownership says the locker room needed a fresh voice, promoting from inside is an odd pivot. Nick, how do you square that?

It doesn’t square. The owner said they needed new energy after gut‑punch losses, then turned to someone tied to those losses. He also basically pinned the Keon Coleman pick on the staff, which points at the OC room; it’s a strange message for a reset.

For the record, I never promised Sam would be a Lombardi lock; I said he was too talented not to win a lot. The salary math matters too—mid‑tier quarterback money plus a deep roster can beat stars on cap‑eating deals.

History backs that up. The cleanest route is a top quarterback on a rookie number; next best is a reclamation guy paid well but not megastar money. There aren’t many Super Bowls won by quarterbacks on giant caps.

Super Bowl take: New England’s an underdog, and Vrabel will drum that beat for two weeks. I see a tight, well‑coached fight either way.

The hinge is the Pats’ offensive line against Seattle’s front. Drake May hasn’t lit up this postseason; if protection holds, New England can edge it, and the coaching experience gap isn’t massive with McDonald new to this stage.

Quick fourth‑down notes: I didn’t love Denver rolling with a backup on a movement play, even at home with a great line. McVay’s road gamble faced louder noise and a better defense with a less mobile quarterback; not exactly automatic either.

I’d still go for it in the Rams’ spot; Seattle smothered primary options and earned the stop. My bigger gripe is Denver not forecasting the weather swing—banking a lead matters more in a looming blizzard—and Stidham turning a throwaway into a costly sack‑fumble on the edge of range.

Pittsburgh choosing Mike McCarthy feels like a brand choosing familiarity over a bold turn to offense. He’ll stabilize and probably tilt them more offensive, but it’s comfort food.

I’d have taken a big swing on a young play‑caller and lived with short‑term pain, but McCarthy isn’t a disaster. His win rate and playoff résumé sit near Harbaugh, Payton, and Tomlin; the perception hit comes from his teams’ massive spotlights.

That’s the truth: coach the Packers, Cowboys, and now Steelers and every clock hiccup trends. The résumé stacks up better than the narrative, but the stage has always been the biggest. It’s The Herd.