Best of the week on The Herd

Hour two, live from Chicago, a town that finally wins in January. The NFL sells teams and matchups so well that even if you’re lukewarm on the stars, a great slate still hooks you, and this weekend was a blast—time for what I got right and wrong.

Right: Kyle Shanahan and his staff navigated injuries and still put on a coaching clinic, and in Buffalo there’s simply nothing like Josh Allen when it matters. Wrong: I’ve questioned Philly’s sideline cohesion and kept defending Herbert, but his playoff production and protection are both tough to stomach.

On college ball, I called Miami versus Indiana and the talent and mistake profiles tracked, and the SEC’s edge looks thin when NIL firepower isn’t real money.

My rankings after the weekend: Chicago played clean but key injuries worry me; San Francisco is thin without George Kittle yet Purdy keeps delivering late; Denver’s defense travels but the points don’t; Buffalo is rolling with Allen shedding mistakes; Houston is fierce but banged up; the Rams are dangerous when they don’t gift extra possessions; New England has no obvious hole; and Seattle sits on top with rest, a smothering run defense, and a plan that forces Purdy to win through the air.

Super Bowl bubble time: I see four who can truly win it—the Rams, Patriots, Seahawks, and Bills. Chicago, the Niners, Denver, and Houston have real red-zone, injury, or one-dimensional issues that knock them out for me.

This Niners at Seahawks game feels massive, and I’m already feeling it on a Thursday—quick one on turnovers: how do you explain Sam Darnold’s interceptions in big moments?

In big games the margin is tiny, so mechanics and decision speed have to be airtight or the weather, rush, and coverage squeeze you into mistakes. You refine accuracy all year and practice under stress so it’s familiar, because you rarely survive giveaways, and I’m curious how Kyle adjusts without Kittle against a very different Seattle defense in a crazy-loud building.

As the rare underdog, does the plan change early, especially coming off that physical Philly tilt and walking into a deeper team’s house?

Playoff football means there’s no tomorrow and maybe only fifty or so offensive snaps, so every series matters. The Niners can lean on complementary ball and a high-motor defense to buy time, then trust they’ve found late-game answers in tight wins.

When you faced that fast, turnover-hunting Seattle style, you took the easy yards and stayed north–south—does that still hold against this version?

They erase space the instant the ball arrives, tackle well, and rotate a deep, underrated front that stresses tackles, so big plays are rare and you have to stack patient drives. Diversity on offense is key and one tip or bounce can swing a low-scoring game.

Matt Stafford has lived in domes and sunshine, and now it could feel like nine below in Chicago—what’s the mindset in that kind of cold?

Cold is partly mental but mostly physical adaptation, which is why practicing outside matters and why you learn the exact layers you can wear without losing motion, while the big guys hardly feel it and skill players have to mind hands and fine motor control. Chicago’s acclimated after weeks of bad weather, Caleb looks comfortable ripping it anyway, and the Rams’ spread-out, shape-shifting attack keeps it compelling.

Buffalo’s on a road gauntlet with injuries and a thin receiver room—does this set up as a defining moment for Josh Allen?

We had a year like that in 2013 where injuries forced us to manufacture momentum, and if you don’t start fast it’s hard to climb back short-handed. The Bills can lean on their run game and line against a detailed Denver defense, and this is a great chance for Josh to put a stamp on it and lift a fan base that’s been waiting.

Patriots versus Texans: Drake May hasn’t seen anything like Houston’s speed—concerned he’s walking into a buzzsaw?

Foxboro will be rocking and cold, and while the schedule talk is noise, the plan needs to trim risk against a defense that brings juice from everywhere. Drake’s poise, accuracy, and movement have been outstanding, so you build around that and keep him out of the teeth of their pressure.

Aaron Rodgers is weighing his future—did you have a single moment where you knew you were done even though you could still play?

My last season was personally draining, I’d hit my age goal, and it was time to be at my kids’ games, but stepping away from something you love and do well is never simple. At quarterback you have to be fully committed year-round or it won’t work, and only Aaron can decide if he wants to live that again.

Niners at Seahawks in the Pacific Northwest is a scene you can already picture, and you’ve had a great year on the call. Can’t wait to watch it with the whole country leaning in.