3 & Out - NFL & CFB Best Bets: NFL's Playoff Weekend & College Football Playoff's National Championship Game

Podcast, how we doing. We taped with Stucky on Wednesday, I might be in the hospital by the time you hear this, and he just had a baby too, so it’s a hectic week. He’s here every week, Action Network, Big Bets on Campus, dialed on college and the NFL, and he just popped up on Netflix, so check that out; let’s dive in.

Under on sleep, and under on luck. Wild card was rough: loved Jags first half, got brutal variance; lived through another Packers collapse straight out of that 28–3 Super Bowl nightmare; and I whiffed on the Chargers because Herbert played rattled despite clean pockets. Margins are tiny in the playoffs; a kick here or a fourth-and-8 there flips everything.

Endgame in Jags-Bills: with one timeout, under a minute, I would’ve kneeled and bled it down. They score right away, kick off under the new rule, and now you’re gifting life to a team with a bazooka-legged kicker; felt like an unnecessary risk that only worked because of the pick.

You have to slide at the one, drain to the mid-20s on the clock, and punch it in with multiple shots from the doorstep. Live odds even dropped after they scored, and Jacksonville clearly allowed the touchdown to preserve time. They got away with it, but game theory said kneel, then sneak it in with Josh.

On the Eagles loss, Kyle rarely dials tricks, so when he does, you know it’s urgent. That was a signature coaching night; with bodies pulled from the practice squad, they still found answers. Against Seattle, I could see a fake punt or field goal in the bag again.

Playoffs let you flip tendencies, and they did. Fangio’s structure had held him down before, but Kyle hit explosives and managed around injuries. Philly’s season-long funk showed up again; the offense kept stalling, and the finale felt like the inevitable end of that pattern.

Jalen’s got to run. He played like a pocket-only guy when QB power was sitting there all game; he looked like post-ring Russ trying to prove he’s a statuesque passer.

That was the matchup to unleash him, and they didn’t. The OC deserves heat, Hurts deserves heat, and the line did too. The sideline blowup with AJ Brown and the flat vibe all year screamed mismanagement; I wouldn’t be shocked by a big move if Siriani stays.

Do you put yourself in the sharp bucket?

Yeah, but the number is everything. Respected accounts can be on opposite sides at different prices, and last week punished a lot of us. Early this week I saw interest in some unders like Denver-Buffalo and Rams-Bears; Seattle took some early nibbles; limits will shape the real moves late.

Bills at Denver feels like a coin flip, so I’m just playing Buffalo on the money line and riding Josh. Denver’s defense is fast, not bully-ball, and the weather looks mild, which helps him.

I bet the under, and I think Buffalo leans more on the run than last week. Denver should be stouter with reinforcements, but they’re thin at safety. In spreads near a field goal, Allen is a money-line cheat code; he can just make the last play.

If they survive, Houston is a tricky matchup later, so it’s not a straight shot, but we’ll get there.

Nothing’s easy; both prior meetings were tight. Seeding did no favors for Buffalo or Jacksonville.

Niners-Seattle again: McDonald disguised everything last time, whereas Fangio gave tells. Prep is fresh and they can build off last week; I think Kyle needs a gadget or two, force some punts, and make Sam throw into tight windows instead of eating clock.

You can’t run on Seattle’s front, so it’s Shanahan versus McDonald and Purdy’s ability to avoid the big mistake. If Kyle finds answers and hits explosives, you put Darnold in must-throw spots; if not, Seattle will squeeze the tempo, settle for kicks, and trust the defense. Special teams lean Seattle; Sheheed can flip a field, so Kyle has to be bold.

I’m grabbing the points with San Francisco. If the pass rush wrecks the pocket, it turns into a slow bludgeoning, but if they just blunt the edge a little, they’re live.

We’ll know early: clean explosives mean a higher-scoring game with upset potential; stalled scripts mean a grind with field goals and not much drama.

Texans-Pats: I’m on Houston, but CJ has to stop chasing star moments. That early flea flicker was nuts; just manage it and let the defense carry.

Pats are hard to rate after a cupcake slate; both units looked different against the Chargers, but Herbert imploded. Houston’s rush can overwhelm, injuries to Gonzalez or Collins matter, and I lean to a lower total more than a side.

Bears-Rams: I’ll take Chicago and the points because chaos follows them, even though the Rams can score from anywhere and it’ll be cold.

I prefer Rams over twenty-six and a half and a Corum longest rush play. Chicago lives off turnovers and bleeds explosives, Stafford in the cold is fine, and the Rams’ line gets healthier. Their defense faded down the stretch, so Caleb can trade shots; I expect fireworks both ways.

Natty: it feels binary—Indiana cover with room or Miami steals it late—but I lean Indiana laying it.

I make it around eight to ten with a fuzzy home edge and played the under. Both teams play slow, Indiana’s defense is airtight, Miami’s penalties and giveaways are a concern against a precision machine on third down; if anything blows up the spread, it’s Indiana being one of those market-proof teams.

Their identity is tough, but it’s more about precision than chaos. Mario gives brawler energy, while Cignetti feels like a chess-board operator; the hitting comes from crisp execution.

Exactly, and that contrast might be the edge in this matchup.

That said, Mario’s group is plenty physical, so they won’t get pushed around; they can trade body blows with Indiana.

I see a script closer to that Ohio State–Indiana style. Miami is live if Beck protects the ball, but they have to stay clean, lean on field position, and avoid the penalty-and-turnover mess. Both defenses can stress the other side, and Indiana keeps winning 50-50s; Sirot is a problem and Becker’s breakout adds another layer. I played Mendoza under rushing because the sacks could flip his yardage negative, and this defense has erased QB runs all year; at Wisconsin he finished below zero. I also like Sirot to score at around even money with those back-shoulders. Home field is tricky, my number’s close, and I wouldn’t back Miami even at ten; I’d lean Indiana and the under.

Alright, Stucky, my wife’s calling—I’ve got to help get ready for the new dad chapter. I’ll catch you soon, enjoy the week and the games.

All the best and smooth delivery, brother. Enjoy the NFL playoffs from the hospital, it kind of feels like camp; hope it all goes great and we’ll talk next week.