Sharp or Square - NFL Schedule Release PART 1 with Warren Sharp

Welcome to Sharper Square, the show that sharpens the squares and makes the wise guys listen. I’m Chad Millman with my partner in picks, Simon Hunter, and today we’re leaning straight into football with returning guest Warren Sharp to tear into the NFL’s new schedule philosophy.

Prime time used to have throwaway Thursdays; now it feels like wall‑to‑wall bangers with star quarterbacks. Is the league truly reshaping the slate to juice every standalone window?

Yes—this is a deliberate, model‑driven shift. They run every one of the 272 games through viewership models, then sell matchups like free agents to networks, prioritizing total eyeballs over parity; it’s why the holiday and prime‑time lineup looks as strong as I can remember, even if a Wednesday night before Thanksgiving is rough from a prep standpoint.

If the league is effectively handicapping who will matter late, should bettors fold that signal into win‑total plans, even if the NFL’s aim is revenue not fairness?

I think so, and I also look to fade teams punished by TV quirks; the Cowboys have worn that for years, and the Rams getting a pile of prime‑time slots makes sense when home‑field is soft. Fans see the little edges too, like giving a rookie in Denver an extra day before facing the champs in Week One.

Let’s test rest versus opponent strength with Chicago and Buffalo grading as rest winners. The Bears are tagged with a brutal slate by traditional metrics—what matters more?

Opponent quality drives outcomes more than rest, and I build strength of schedule off market win totals, not last year’s records; by that lens, Chicago still draws the sixth‑toughest set. That said, their rest profile is excellent—plus fifteen net days, five games with more rest than the opponent, and several mini‑bye boosts against key NFC foes—while post‑2011 bye weeks have lost some edge; notably, since 2020 the Bears have been awful ATS with a three‑day rest deficit and solid when they avoid it, and this year they mostly avoid it.

Now the Eagles sit on the other end with a big rest hole—do we just shrug because it is Philly, or is there a real tax here?

People here are dialed into rest quirks now, and the schedule has land mines—multiple opponents off byes, an overseas trip without a bye on the return, and odd prime‑time pockets. How steep is the hill?

Philly is minus fifteen net rest days, thirty‑first in the league, with six opponents getting seven or more days to prep; from Weeks One through Nine they have four deficits and no advantages, then a modest tailwind from Week Ten on. They also play five games at a rest disadvantage while Dallas and Washington have only one, and historically the Eagles have underperformed the spread badly when spotting at least three rest days, though their opponent slate itself is much lighter than the rest of the division; circle the early London‑then‑no‑bye spot against Carolina as a prime trouble patch.

This all feels like Roger Goodell operating in full revenue‑max mode—stack the best games, accept skewed rest, and let the owners enjoy the show; Rams in seven spotlights and Philly’s grind are the cost of spectacle.

Right, he serves the owners and chases reach—there is even a massive NFC West opener in Australia that could sway seeding, which says everything about the push abroad; London’s working, travel is easier, and a London franchise someday feels inevitable.

You can see the global playbook the NBA used paying off, and the NFL wants that scale. That’s Part One of our deep dive into the 2026 schedule—thanks to Warren Sharp; watch on YouTube, subscribe, rate, review, and we love you for it.