Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL WEEK 17 BETS: Eagles-Bills, Jaguars-Colts, Bears-49ers, Rams-Falcons and more

Welcome to Sharper Square, part of The Volume Podcast Network. I’m Chad, here with my BFF and co-host, professional bettor Simon Hunter.

Christmas Day football looked bleak and turned out great, and holiday underdogs went a perfect seven for seven. We pushed Dallas, hit Minnesota and the Chiefs, missed the moneyline parlay with the Lions, and the Cowboys set a wild first-half overs mark.

Happy Boxing Day, Simon. I’m working through COVID, but we’re here grinding like the Chiefs, covering and keeping it professional.

Boxing Day origins are much less jolly than I thought, and yes, I still want a national day off after the Super Bowl. Let’s hit sharp calls.

Pros loved Texans over Chargers and hit it early as the number dropped. Packers-Ravens was a buy at plus two and a half but got messy with QB uncertainty. Bills-Eagles turned into splits, and pros piled onto Colts. Browns steamed from four and a half to three. Seahawks-Panthers is a pros-versus-joes tug of war. I’m dug in on Rams, while a lot of sharps back Atlanta.

Texans at Chargers: I took two and a half and the moneyline. This is a fade of the Chargers’ offensive line versus a better-than-advertised Texans front, and Domeco’s been profitable as a dog.

Herbert’s been gutsy without his tackles, but the matchup still leans Houston and the contest timing hurts us. I prefer taking the points over moneyline because the two matters.

Seattle at Carolina: you’ve got a Simon Says on Seattle, but the Panthers have been good to us. Why the strong stance?

Different tiers of talent and a Seattle defense that can force a one-dimensional game. The Bucs win inflated Carolina’s number, Darnold’s historically fine as a big fave versus bad defenses, and this looks like a look-ahead spot before the Bucs; I like Seattle.

Jags at Colts: I’m buying low on Indy +6.5 as a home dog off a blowout, and selling a Jags team boosted by wins over a Broncos offense I still don’t trust. Late-season trend favors this spot.

You’re on the sharp side and the line’s sliding, but I can’t fade a hot Jags offense and scheme that keeps springing guys open; I’ll wait for a better number or tease, and won’t fight you if we need Indy in the contest.

Saints at Titans: I grabbed three and the moneyline. Public dog worries me, but the wise guys hit it too.

Could be a popular dog and still right; Tennessee’s not dead, and this is a real test for the Saints’ rookie after a home blowout before heading on the road.

Browns hosting Steelers: Cleveland +3 is our brass-balls bet. Division spot, Miles Garrett chasing a record, and I’m fading Tomlin as a road favorite.

I love it, especially with Pittsburgh possibly resting depending on the Ravens’ result. Cleveland’s been sticky at home, the head-to-head there leans Browns, and the Mason Rudolph twist only adds to the Miles narrative.

Bucs at Dolphins: number feels big for Miami if the run game rips, but why aren’t we all over the Dolphins?

Miami is the side on paper, but I’m spooked by their QB play and effort vibes, so I’d rather take Tampa with the points and the market agrees so far.

Giants-Raiders swung after Brock Bowers hit IR, and the Giants’ line is banged up. Do we ride with the psycho coach who doesn’t care about draft order?

I’m fine being public on Vegas at home given the historical angle for two bottom-feeders, Crosby versus a wounded line, and a running game that punishes the Giants’ linebacker issues.

Bills at Eagles: I bet Buffalo early and I’m overexposed, especially with Josh Allen’s foot. Eagles say they’ll play starters, so I might keep it out of the contest.

I want Bills in a full-go, urgency spot, but I’m waiting on Allen’s practice status; if he’s limited all week, I’ll pass rather than run him into a strong front on one leg.

Bears +3 at Niners: my heart’s in it, but it feels like San Francisco’s price is inflated. Is Chicago live?

Bears have a real resume and a turnover-driven identity, while I’m still wary of the Niners’ pass rush metrics; with a hook in the contest I’d love Chicago, and this game could swing the NFC one-seed.

Quick futures oddity: pre-season chances of Burrow, Lamar, and Mahomes all missing the playoffs were microscopic. Detroit fans, hold tight—next year’s schedule should be kind.

Biggest positions: Houston and Cleveland, waiting on a better Seattle number, and likely Bears if three and a half appears. Tempted by Vegas.

Underdog parlay: Houston, the Bears, Tennessee, Cleveland, and the Raiders. Favorites parlay: Seattle, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, the Rams, and the Bills.

Sharp vs Square: I’m taking Cleveland +3.

I’ll take Tennessee; Simon’s on the Bears. This is Sharper Square—join us on YouTube Sunday morning for our live run-through and Sunday night for the recap. Like, subscribe, rate, and review. Feedback’s a gift. Love you—come on, baby, one time.