Sharp or Square - EARLY 2026 NFL SEASON WIN TOTALS - Part 1

Welcome to Sharper Square, the show that sharpens the square and makes the wise guys listen. I’m Chad Millman with my best friend and co‑host Simon Hunter, our very own Goldie Hawn and Kurt Russell of betting pods, and yes, he’s mid‑move in full offseason mode.

Offseason vibes, boxes everywhere, football always on; apologies if the video’s rough, the audio’s locked in.

Early season win totals hit before free agency and the draft, and an email asked us to square our Browns long‑shot talk with a clear under six and a half lean; where do we land?

I tossed the Browns out at a huge price months ago on a defensive bet and a faint Watson rebound; the market’s cold on him and a new DC adds risk, so I’m not in a hurry on any over.

Rapid‑fire tens and a half: I lean Ravens under with new staff and a defense we can’t read yet.

Same under; early uncertainty on the coordinator and Lamar’s durability makes the safe side the low.

Bills next, talk me into it.

Easy over; Allen with Joe Brady in a soft division is mispriced and I grade it a win higher.

Lions feel like an under with line attrition and a tougher North.

I’m under; that line’s aged, the window narrows, and Green Bay and Chicago are trending up.

Packers at ten and a half look live.

Lean over; healthy QB, strong line, better defense, best value to win the division.

Chiefs at ten and a half, I shade under until we know when Mahomes is right.

I won’t take an early over; that tag feels like a legacy number, so I’d wait.

Chargers share that number but I pass until they prove they can stay healthy and consistent.

Slight over lean if they’re intact, but the defensive change worries me and Denver’s the better play.

So who’s the buy in that division?

Broncos over nine and a half; strong line, an improving quarterback, Payton’s imprint, and I expect this creeps to ten and a half by September.

Rams at ten and a half, I’m under.

Same; asking Stafford to repeat a peak season and stay clean all year is a lot.

Eagles at ten and a half, I lean over on talent and a friendly division.

Priced right, but I lean over too; even a wobble still lands near eleven if the line and defense rebound.

Quick aside from my annual friends trip: we spent half the weekend arguing Watson versus Shedeur in two years, and a buddy’s painful Watson rookie‑card tale reminded me why this league owns our brains.

When life’s loud, I lean on football; for cards I stick to Pokemon so my collection never gets a scandal.

Two more at ten and a half; Niners, I lean over if they stay healthy.

I’m under; that division hits hard and losing Trent Williams would expose Purdy.

Seahawks, I lean over on a defense that can carry Sam Darnold enough.

I still lean under after a title run; turnovers and the usual hangover make repeating that pace tough.

Top leans today are Bills over, Lions under, and Broncos over; part two next week for the rest. My Chad’s Choice before we go is Panthers over six and a half in a wide‑open South with a better defense, a coach I trust, and faith in Bryce’s late‑game magic.

That’s a trap number and I’ll unpack it in part two, but I’m happy to suffer through it together.

This was Sharper Square; rate, review, subscribe, and smash YouTube. We’re back Thursday with Keith O’Brien and his new book; love you.