Sharp or Square - U.S. Open Golf Betting Preview

Welcome to Sharper Square, part of The Volume. I’m Chad, here with my guy, pro bettor Simon Hunter, and I’m still buzzing from a New York weekend of soccer, Knicks mayhem, and bar-hopping that felt light, joyful, and very old-school city fun.

I can’t believe we were texting about soccer, but what a stretch of sports. The USA smashing Paraguay four to one was massive, and even the studio legends were stunned; I’m hyped for Australia next and loving the global energy flooding the cities.

Shout to Jason for sticking with the Knicks call; the city’s connection to this team is real and it was a blast to be part of it. Now we pivot to the U.S. Open at Shinnecock, and we’ve got our guy Spencer Aguilar back to break down the betting angles.

Shinnecock is a true championship test where good swings pay and misses really hurt. Fairways are hittable, but the fescue and long approach shots punish you if you’re even a little off, so there isn’t one perfect archetype; it rewards overall skill, which is why the U.S. Open is the sharpest major for bettors.

How much will wind and tee-time luck matter this week?

Coastal wind always matters, and tee times can tilt outcomes, but the market often over-adjusts. I bake weather into my model, act before the window closes, and avoid rebuilding everything off one forecast because a lot of it is already priced in.

Odds are tight up top. Is this still Scottie Scheffler’s tournament, or do you see value past the favorites?

I rarely play chalk, but I’m backing Scheffler around six and a half to seven to one; over the last 24 rounds he grades number one across my buckets even without recent trophies. This setup rewards precise ball striking and patience, which fits him perfectly, with someone like Fitzpatrick also making sense behind him.

Wild to call him cold when he just finished runner-up at the Masters.

Beyond outrights, what are your favorite positions in matchups or cuts?

I grabbed Si Woo Kim over Justin Rose early; Si Woo is undervalued like a quiet top‑ten talent, while Rose is boom or bust in this event, though the price has moved. I also like Andrew Putnam to make the cut at plus 105 after a fluky missed cut caused by a brutal qualifying schedule, which pushed his number higher than my projection.

What’s your best angle for betting after the cut?

In‑tournament matchups still hold the biggest edges if you trust your pre‑event numbers and don’t overreact to one or two rounds. Keep your priors, avoid rebuilding your model on tiny samples, and pick off misprices.

Our listeners love a long shot. Who are your triple‑digit darts?

Kurt Kitayama and Maverick McNealy both rate closer to the 70 to 80 range in my model, and you can still find triple‑digit prices. Last year’s Wyndham Clark reminder applies here: you only need one to hit.

I couldn’t coax a song out of you, but if one of those big numbers cashes, we’re getting a recorded ditty for the show. Before we go, tell people where to find your work.

Follow me on X at T‑Off Sports and visit toffsports.club. There’s a free Discord tier, and my customizable model lets you weigh the data yourself so you can originate prices, plus I publish a steady stream of articles to guide your process.

That’s our show. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square, follow us on Instagram at sharpe or square, and rate, review, subscribe wherever you get your pods. Feedback is a gift; until next time, love you.